CQ: Mississippi Senate race makes top 5 most likely to flip

Congressional Quarterly just released their top five Senate races that are likely to change hands. All five of these seats are currently held by Republicans facing Democratic challengers. In fact 9 of the top 10 contested races are for seats currently held by Republicans. The GOP is playing defense all over the map. Moving up the list at number five is Ronnie Musgrove's bid to win the Trent Lott seat from Roger Wicker who was appointed by Governor Haley Barbour.

Here is the list:

1. Virgina - Mark Warner (D) vs. James S. Gillmore (R) for the seat vacated by the retiring John Warner (R)

2. New Mexico - Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R) for the seat vacated by the retiring Pete V. Domenici (R)

3. New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. John Sununu (R) (i)

4. Colorado - Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R) for the seat vacated by the retiring Wayne Allard (R)

here is what CQ had to say about number 5:

5. Mississippi, where interim Republican Sen. Roger Wicker , appointed to his seat last December, faces competition from a well-known Democrat, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, in a special election to fill the final four years of resigned Republican Trent Lott’s unexpired term. As in most of the South, conservative Mississippi long ago shed its old-school Democratic traditions and swung hard toward the Republican Party. But the national downturn for the GOP has had its effect even here, as boldly illustrated by the victory for Democrat Travis W. Childers May 13 in the special election to succeed Wicker in the 1st Congressional District seat he had held for 13 years. State voters’ ingrained Republican voting habits in statewide races, which make Republican presidential nominee John McCain a solid favorite to carry Mississippi, give ample hope to supporters of Wicker, who is known as a mild-mannered and diligent lawmaker. But Democrat Musgrove, though he lost his 2003 bid for re-election to Republican Haley Barbour , is known statewide, while Wicker is well-recognized in just one of the state’s four House districts. Republican strategists have tried to open up some breathing space for Wicker by hammering Musgrove for past campaign donations he received from figures now involved in a state political corruption scandal.

Well it looks like the GOP has not learned their lesson and plans a negative line of attack on Musgrove. If that is all they have, they are going to lose, again.

CQ Politics on the MS-01 race

CQ Politics, a wing of subscription based Congressional Quarterly, just posted an article on the MS-01 race. CQ Politics has a lot of free content online that does not require a subscription. So you don't need a subscription to view this article.

The effort by Davis and his Republican backers to push past Childers in the runoff are based on their attempts to “nationalize” the race. They are seeking to erode Childers’ claims of conservative credentials by associating him with more liberal national Democratic Party leaders — a tack being echoed in the Louisiana House special election contest between state Rep. Don Cazayoux, who also is running as a conservative-leaning Democrat, and Republican former state Rep. Woody Jenkins.

and I found this take interesting, although I am not sure I agree with it

Analysts have said it is possible that a kind word from Obama — who is seeking to become the nation’s first African-American president — could help Childers at the polls May 13 by increasing turnout among blacks who make up more than a quarter of district voters and typically vote overwhelmingly Democratic. But Childers, who is casting himself as a “pro-life” and “pro-gun” conservative, has to walk a fine line in a district that overall leans strongly to the right, as Republicans are basing their campaign against him on an allusion that he will side with liberal Democrats should he go to Washington.

Update: I just got word that The Rev. Wright, Obama Ad has been pulled in LA-06. I am waiting to find out if it has been pulled here or not.

Correction according to TPM it was a Freedom Watch ad accusing Cazayoux of wanting to give benefits to illegal immigrants, which was totally false. The CBS affiliate for Baton Rouge refused to show it for its lack of evidence.

Mississippi's Greatest Hits in 2008

Yesterday CQ Politics dot Com covered the state of Mississippi in an article about how it seems every elected politician is a marked man/woman. As ever since Chip Pickering left the 3rd, the "hits" just keep coming in Washington.

As now Trent Lott is a do gooder lobbyist, and Roger Wicker is running/ has inherited his seat, it has set a snowball effect across many districts on both sides of the aisle as to a vunerable "who's who" running for newly vacated corner offices.

CQ labels the 3rd "as Safe Republican."

So oddly enough the article is composed of giving you the background, of a paragraph or more, of the 4 leading Republicans running in the primary.

Rather informative. If you're not Democrat.
Since as CQ sees it being a Safe GOP seat, it doesn't drown you in the petty information on the Democratic candidates.

"Two Democrats have filed for the primary, which is scheduled for March 11."

Thats all their mention. If you're like me, this is a head scratcher. Its not like pundits are ever wrong, right?