Republicans will try to minimize the increase by speaking in percentages, not raw dollars and cents, when discussing by how much to increase the tobacco tax.
The state's current tobacco tax stands at 18 cents per pack.
Republicans will want to raise that 100 percent or 200 percent. All big numbers. All sounding quite impressive to the voters.
But don't be fooled. At even 200 percent, we're talking just a 36-cent increase. That's a drop in the bucket. It would barely generate enough tax dollars to be beneficial to the state.
Democrats have to talk in cents, never percentages. Never percentages. Listen to me, never percentages. Because 50 cents might be 277 percent, and a dollar might be 555 percent, but it's still just 50 cents or a dollar.
People grasp 50 cents. People grasp a dollar. People are OK with 50 cents and a dollar.
People will get scared at 277 percent -- and really scared at 555 percent -- compared to 100 percent.
Bet that Gov. Barbour is not going to just cave on this tax. He'll try to bog it down in the House because "Democrats are greedy and want a 300 percent increase instead of just a 100 percent increase".
OK. Predictions done. I'm taking off my big red swami hat now.
$.36 sounds like a compromise to me. I support the tax, and will take $.36 if that is all the solons will give us. We complain about no compromise in the Legislature. Well, this is it.
ReplyDeleteFirst, the keyboard shortcut for the cent sign is Alt 1062. This might help us in our debate.
ReplyDelete36¢ is a joke. Granted, it will move us up in the rankings to be tied with Lousisane at 43 (if I read the chart correctly). This in no way will offset the burden of smoking-related illnesses on Medicaid, nor will it deter people from smoking.
I can't speak to the adequacy of the tax. I support $1 a pack, and would support $3 a pack. I have no favorable opinion of tobacco products.
ReplyDeleteI will speak to compromise. A number is on the table. If the Democrats can't get .50, are they finished trying to compromise? If the .36 is rejected, are the Republicans finished? I don't know.
I personally would be satisfied with .36 if it is the only number that could pass.
I understand the compromise, but moral victories are useless to the state. They only signify victories of a political nature.
ReplyDeleteGoing back a couple of years, the initial proposal was for a $1 increase. In that regard, 50 cents is a compromise.
Using that logic, every plaintiff's lawyer that ask for 100 million compromises when they ask for 10 million, even if the case isn't worth much. I guess the Democrats should have started higher, then they could have said they dropped their initial demand 500 percent instead of 50. (Using your predicted Republican tactic!)
ReplyDeleteI'd still take a technical knockout over a knockout when the other option is being knocked out. Again, all of this is my personal opinion. We'll see how it all shakes out.
Barbour has already spoken on the record about this and he was saying he would expect taxes to approach our neighbors and he spoke in dollars not percentages for increases.
ReplyDeleteThe real deal IMO is that the increase in tobacco tax is going to come with a Republican push for a state income tax cut. Nevermind we can't pay for what we have now.
ReplyDelete