Lloyd Gray: Musgrove - Wicker to be a "donnybrook"

Lloyd Gray, editor of the Daily Journal, compared this years Senatorial race between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker to the 1988 contest between Trent Lott and Wayne Dowdy. Using the results from the 1988 race as a backdrop, Gray illustrates the importance of the first congressional district in the Senate race outcome. On top of that it looks like the Republicans are giving up on Greg Davis and concentrating on trying to salvage a win in the Senate race.

My advice to the Musgrove campaign. Go populist in north Mississippi. Listen to the message of Travis Childers and internalize it. By all means point out the special interest money that fuels Roger Wicker. Don't forget to point out his anti-veteran votes as well as anti-worker votes. That line of attack is a winner in north Mississippi.

The first thing Wicker has to do is carry the 1st District, and carry it big. In 1988, Lott and Dowdy basically split the rest of the state 50-50. But Lott had a higher national profile than Wicker, having been minority whip in the House and a visible member of Ronald Reagan's team, and Dowdy did not enjoy Musgrove's statewide name recognition. Additionally, there was no pull for black voters at the top of the ticket - Michael Dukakis, the Democratic nominee that year, didn't exactly excite them.

All these factors helped Lott outside his home base. Wicker will face more daunting challenges, so it is even more important that he get a huge 1st District margin - including a massive turnout in DeSoto County - as well as piling up votes in populous Republican strongholds like Rankin County scattered around the state.