If you ask me, you need to read between the lines a bit with this Clarion-Ledger story on the Childers race in November.
For instance, look at what the NRSC spokesman said to the Clarion-Ledger:
The National Republican Congressional Committee poured money into the runoff, but a NRCC spokesman said the group is not currently involved and would not say whether that will change.
Considering that the DSCC has already committed to at least $1 million to help Congressman Travis Childers win in November, it is likely that the Republican powers-that-be are looking in other venues.
MS01 is now a challenge seat for Republicans, and challenge seats are usually tougher to win than seats you are defending or open seats. Consider that this is the fourth balloting for this seat and that you were beat handily in the special election, then it makes sense for Republicans to jump ship.
There's also less-than-enthusiastic support coming from state GOP leaders:
Brad White, the state's incoming Republican party chairman, said the party will help push voters to the polls for Davis and other GOP candidates."I'm not betting my house on it, but I believe it's extremely doable," he said of Davis' chances.
Not betting the house on it? Just "doable"? Six months ago, such statements from White would be unheard of.
This is not to say that Childers has it in the bag. It is to say, however, that Republicans -- and perhaps Davis himself -- have privately acknowledged this seat probably ain't changing hands in November.
It's amazing how much easier it is raise money when you're the incumbent than when you're the challenger. Also, Mississippians like their incumbents. If Childers does win in November, he's likely to be there for awhile.
ReplyDeleteI think Childers will win this one, but face a tough race at the mid-term in two years. They may get McCoullough or someone of similar stature to run.
ReplyDeleteMcCullough's running will most likely be determined by the state of the nation at the time.
ReplyDeleteIt will depend on the party of the presidency, and how he is perceived. Also how Congress is perceived.
But, yeah, McCullough would be the obvious choice.
In fact, had McCullough beat Davis, things might be different now. Would have been much tougher, for certain.
I'm biased, but I think it will be tighter than the "pundits" are saying. And the longer Childers has the job, the harder he will be to unseat; so, few sincere people hold on to that "next time" fantasy.
ReplyDeleteThere's going to be 'enough' money for a good challenge for Davis. A recent poll showed a statistical dead heat. Childers has voted with Pelosi 80%+ despite claiming he wouldn't. Whether any media do their job enough to call his hand on this may be the game-changer.
There is definitely room for a challenge, but I think everyone sees it is an uphill battle.
ReplyDeleteThe Pelosi connection, if handled improperly, will be nothing more than an attack from Davis that will turn off voters who remember nothing but nasty races earlier in the year.
I think Childers wins, thinks he expands his margin over the special election. I think the RNSC stays out of it, and Davis is left to raise money without any real machine behind him.