Sunday Kos: Could Obama win Mississippi?

On Sunday's the Daily Kos runs the blogosphere version of the Sunday New York Times. They feature around 10 front page articles that are each in depth, long reads. Much to my surprise one of the features was "Could Obama win Mississippi?" by DavidNYC. Y'all may know David (and James) from Swing State Project. DavidNYC and SSP raised $3,500 for Travis Childers. Combined with Cotton Mouth's $1,925, our wing of the proressive blogosphere raised well over $5,000. Not bad for a bunch of guys in their PJ's iin their parent's basement. ;)

Read full article here: "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

For instance, exit polls show that black primary turnout spiked in South Carolina this year. African Americans made up 47% of the primary electorate in 2004 but 55% in 2008. (I use SC rather than MS as a basis for comparison because SC was contested in both years. Kerry had already wrapped up the nomination before MS voted in 2004, so those primary numbers are not meaningful.

The black vote was also very heavy in the recent MS-01 special election (won by Democrat Travis Childers). What’s more, between the first round on April 22nd and the run-off on May 13th, turnout soared in counties with large black populations, in some instances doubling. Many people have cited not just Obama’s popularity as the cause for this outpouring of support, but the relentless GOP attacks on him as well – attacks which will surely continue, and continue to galvanize.

David after displaying some charts you should really go read along with the full article. "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

Three things have to happen here - what I call the "ten, ten, ten" plan. First, the black share of the vote has to shoot up to 40%, pushing the white vote down to 60%. This would represent a shift of about ten points in the racial composition of the vote. Second, Obama has to run ten points better among blacks than Kerry did. And third, he also has to run ten points better among whites than Kerry did.

The question, of course, is whether all of these things actually can happen. As I explain above, there’s already ample reason to believe that black turnout will break all kinds of records. Similarly, with Republicans so utterly demoralized and their party all but shattered, I can definitely see the conservative white vote getting depressed. (Certainly, the GOP loss in MS-01 isn’t helping morale much.) Consequently, I think we're more likely than not to see a materially different black-white voting mix in MS on election day. Will it really shift ten points? Hard to say, as there isn't much precedent for a candidacy like Obama's, but I think it could....

...Obviously, it’s very easy to play with numbers and tweak them just enough to come out the way you’d like. And as I said at the start of this piece, the scenario I’m outlining is not at all likely. But what’s important is that it’s possible, thanks to the unusual candidate, state demographics, and election year we have before us. And the mere fact that you can even talk about Obama competing in MS with a straight face means that the GOP will be sweating bullets. If they have to spend so much as a dollar here to defend the state, that alone will constitute victory.

Yes We Can!!

Will Childers race affect Musgrove's ambitions?

Here is a little bit more from Washington Post columnist George F. Will. He does bring up an interesting topic- if Childers wins tomorrow, how will this affect Musgrove's race- also in November.

If Childers wins on Tuesday, Davis will have another crack at him in November, when the top of the Democratic ticket, whoever it is, might be a heavy weight in Childers's saddle. But Davis had better win now because Mississippians in this district know how to split their tickets. For a House record 53 years from November 1941 to January 1995, while the South was changing from solidly Democratic to solidly Republican, Mississippi's 1st District was represented by Democrat Jamie Whitten.

In 1928, when some Southern Democrats balked at voting for their party's presidential nominee, Al Smith, a Catholic, incensed party loyalists popularized the saying, "I'd vote for a yellow dog if he ran on the Democratic ticket." There are few white "yellow dog" Democrats left in the South, but many unshakable Democrats: 36 percent of Mississippians are African American, the highest percentage of any state. Mississippi has the largest number of African American elected officials, including 47 of 174 state legislators. If Obama becomes the Democratic nominee, stimulating African American turnout, Musgrove's Senate candidacy could benefit, leading the national Democratic Party to open its wallet for him.

So a Childers win on Tuesday would be a scary harbinger, and not only for House Republicans. Senate Republicans might have an unanticipated worry in an unlikely state.

Political Ad on Immigration

There hasn't been much chatter on the site the past few days, but this will surely stir something up.

Political Ads Blame Immigration for Black Unemployment



WLBT covered it, and below is some information on the source of the ad.

The ads are paid for by the Coalition for the Future American Worker. The Coalition is an umbrella group that includes trade groups and immigration reform advocates. The claim contained in the ads -- that "'studies show immigration accounts for 40% of the decline in the employment of black men" -- stems from a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private research group.

The NBER describes itself as a non-partisan group, but the liberal group SourceWatch cites conservative sources for the Bureau's philanthropic funding.

A report by KMBC-TV of Kansas City, Mo. found the statistical claim to be misleading, given the actual portion of legal and illegal immigrants within the American workforce. The CFAW ads ran in Missouri and in other states like Mississippi where immigration reform is a key political issue.

Justice Dept. Controversy

The controversies at the Department of Justice seem to be never-ending.

From McClatchy:

The Justice Department's voting rights chief stepped down Friday amid allegations that he'd used the position to aid a Republican strategy to suppress African-American votes.

John Tanner became the latest of about a dozen senior department officials, including former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, who've resigned in recent months in a scandal over the politicization of the Justice Department in the Bush administration.

In recent months, McClatchy has reported on a pattern of decision-making within the department's Civil Rights Division, of which the Voting Rights Section is a part, that tended to narrow the voting rights of Democratic-leaning minorities.

Tanner has been enmeshed for months in congressional investigations over his stewardship of the unit that was established to protect minority-voting rights. He drew increased focus this fall after he told a Latino group: "African-Americans don't become elderly the way white people do. They die."