The Photo-Op Express

The USA Today reported that Senator John McCain held a campaign event in flood ravaged Iowa despite requests by the governor requesting both campaigns to cancel scheduled events. One campaign complied, the other must have been looking for a good photo-op.




Hat Tip to BarbinMD, a Daily Kos Front-pager,

An aide to Iowa's governor said Thursday that Republican presidential candidate John McCain ignored the governor's request to cancel a campaign visit amid a massive flood recovery effort in the state.

McCain toured flood-damaged sites in Iowa on Thursday, including the town of Columbus Junction in the southeast.

Patrick Dillon, Gov. Chet Culver's chief of staff, said the governor was concerned that McCain's trip would divert local law enforcement from the flood recovery effort to provide security for McCain.

Daily Kos says John Leek Rocks

Our man John Leek, the founding father of Cotton Mouth, received some big-time attention on Daily Kos today. In a diary on the prestigious recommended list about the applicants for the Netroots Nation scholarships, Daily Kos member "Land of Enchantment" had this to say about Mr. Leek,

Another applicant is John Leek of Cottonmouth blog, out of Mississippi. This is one of the "crashing the gates" blogs passed over by the DNC for floor credential in Denver, despite being clearly better qualified than the blog which got approved.

John Leek deserves to go to Netroots Nation if anyone does. While he may not admit it, it has to feel good to see your work recognized by your peers. Way to go John!

Huge new polls out from Rasmussen

Two new polls related to Mississippi came out today from the polling firm Rasmussen. Rasmussen has rated very high in accuracy this cycle, placing in the top 5 of 31 polling outfits. They ran two polls of interest, one on the Senate race and one on the Presidential race. Both polls are shocking.

For the Mississippi Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott, the special election matchup is former Governor Ronnie Musgrove against Roger Wicker who vacated the Congressional seat now help by our beloved Travis Childers.

MoE 4%
Roger Wicker 46%
Ronnie Musgrove 47%

These numbers lie within the 4 percent margin of error, so it is a statistical dead heat. Kos over at the Daily Kos moved this race into his top 5 for the cycle. Kos can raise lots of cash if he highlights this race on his website. He raised over $20,000 for Scott Kleeb in Nebraska in less than a week about three weeks ago. I don't know if he will do that kind of thing here, but I sure hope so.

Edit: I misread the poll, Musgrove is in the lead 47-46, not behind.
Here are links to the polls SEN PRES

Now the other big news. For all you members of the Obamanation, the new poll says Mississippi is in play. You can read an excellent article on how Obama can carry Mississippi here. Now here is the good stuff.

MoE 4%
John McCain 50%
Barack Obama 44%

To quote Kos:

As DavidNYC has pointed out, if Obama can get African Americans to 40 percent of the voter pool in the state, he actually has a chance of winning the state. This poll seems to confirm that, giving us a competitive race with a 36 percent black sample. (Blacks made up 34 percent of the 2004 statewide vote.) Unfortunately, we don't have numbers for white voters. As David points out, with a 40-percent black share of the Mississippi electorate, Obama would need at least 20 percent of the white vote to win the state. Kerry got 14 percent of the Mississippi white vote in 2004.

Yes We Can!!

Kos has Musgrove within 4 points

Front page of DailyKos this evening has posted its findings from Research 2000 conducting a research poll for the site. It shows Musgrove within 4 points of newly appointed Wicker in this fall's special Senate Election.

Now looking into the numbers, this can be a little generous OR it can be a great sign of things to come.

Regardless the State Democrats need the national party to get its act together soon. Only then can a strong unified effort be applied to this vulnerable Red seat in the deep South with any chance of success. If we are to hope the DCCC notices Southern states outside of Virginia that is (sorry I was in NC in 2004, still bitter.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 4% (12/10-12 results)

Wicker (R) 46 (47)
Musgrove (D) 42 (39)

That splits the previous poll's margin by half, well within the poll's margin of error. Not as delicious as the DSCC's poll released earlier this week showing an 8-point Musgrove lead, but still enough to suggest that this is now legitimately a top-tier race.

Enjoy and Happy Memorial Day!

Sunday Kos: Could Obama win Mississippi?

On Sunday's the Daily Kos runs the blogosphere version of the Sunday New York Times. They feature around 10 front page articles that are each in depth, long reads. Much to my surprise one of the features was "Could Obama win Mississippi?" by DavidNYC. Y'all may know David (and James) from Swing State Project. DavidNYC and SSP raised $3,500 for Travis Childers. Combined with Cotton Mouth's $1,925, our wing of the proressive blogosphere raised well over $5,000. Not bad for a bunch of guys in their PJ's iin their parent's basement. ;)

Read full article here: "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

For instance, exit polls show that black primary turnout spiked in South Carolina this year. African Americans made up 47% of the primary electorate in 2004 but 55% in 2008. (I use SC rather than MS as a basis for comparison because SC was contested in both years. Kerry had already wrapped up the nomination before MS voted in 2004, so those primary numbers are not meaningful.

The black vote was also very heavy in the recent MS-01 special election (won by Democrat Travis Childers). What’s more, between the first round on April 22nd and the run-off on May 13th, turnout soared in counties with large black populations, in some instances doubling. Many people have cited not just Obama’s popularity as the cause for this outpouring of support, but the relentless GOP attacks on him as well – attacks which will surely continue, and continue to galvanize.

David after displaying some charts you should really go read along with the full article. "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

Three things have to happen here - what I call the "ten, ten, ten" plan. First, the black share of the vote has to shoot up to 40%, pushing the white vote down to 60%. This would represent a shift of about ten points in the racial composition of the vote. Second, Obama has to run ten points better among blacks than Kerry did. And third, he also has to run ten points better among whites than Kerry did.

The question, of course, is whether all of these things actually can happen. As I explain above, there’s already ample reason to believe that black turnout will break all kinds of records. Similarly, with Republicans so utterly demoralized and their party all but shattered, I can definitely see the conservative white vote getting depressed. (Certainly, the GOP loss in MS-01 isn’t helping morale much.) Consequently, I think we're more likely than not to see a materially different black-white voting mix in MS on election day. Will it really shift ten points? Hard to say, as there isn't much precedent for a candidacy like Obama's, but I think it could....

...Obviously, it’s very easy to play with numbers and tweak them just enough to come out the way you’d like. And as I said at the start of this piece, the scenario I’m outlining is not at all likely. But what’s important is that it’s possible, thanks to the unusual candidate, state demographics, and election year we have before us. And the mere fact that you can even talk about Obama competing in MS with a straight face means that the GOP will be sweating bullets. If they have to spend so much as a dollar here to defend the state, that alone will constitute victory.

Yes We Can!!

Swing State Project endorses Childers and to fundraise

Swing State Project is a national blog that covers congressional races. While they are a great source of information for just about any contested race (they are known for the campaign financing reporting), they rarely endorse a candidate. They support all progressive Democrats but rarely go as far as to endorse and actively fund raise. The last time was the Tester race in Montana in 2006.

This is great news to see the progressive blogosphere focused on a Mississippi congressional race. Websites like Swing State Project, Daily Kos, MyDD, etc.. played not a small role in the 2006 Democratic electoral victories. This is the new face of politics. The ability for a large group of small donors to make a difference is the essence of people powered politics.

From Swing State Project:

The Swing State Project is doing something that we haven't done since the early days of Jon Tester's race in Montana -- independently of any other blog, we're laying our cards down on the table and offering our endorsement and fundraising support to a congressional candidate: Democrat Travis Childers, who is running in the special election to replace Roger Wicker in the House of Representatives.
We've had our eye on MS-01 for some time, giving it a competitive rating before any other major prognosticator did so. Travis Childers bore out our projections and then exceeded them, coming just 400 or so votes shy of outright victory in the special election on April 22nd. Now he faces a two-candidate run-off on May 13th. This is a very winnable race, but only if Childers gets all the help he needs.
Childers, the Chancery Clerk of Prentiss County for nearly two decades, is a serious economic populist with true-blue small town Mississippi roots. He supports S-CHIP, opposes CAFTA and wants us to withdraw our troops from Iraq in 12 to 18 months. And he holds these populist positions in a heavily red district: MS-01's PVI is R+10, and it gave Bush 62% of its vote in 2004. If Childers can win this seat, it will be a crippling blow to the NRCC, who have spent nearly $300,000 against Childers, only to come up short last Tuesday. But we can be sure that they'll be back in full force, doing all they can to hang on to this seat in May. And that's why we have to step up and fight back.
Our goal: $2300 for Childers. In other words, that's the equivalent of one "maxed out" big dollar donation.
Together, we can do this. So please support Travis Childers today with whatever you can manage.

Welcome to a New Democratic Party: A Party That Fights Back!

The DCCC has bought advertising in response to a combined assault by Charles Gregory Davis and the crooked NRCC.

Here's the Report.

Chrississippi at Daily Kos describes the ad:

It's kind of a cartoony look at Davis' spending city money as Mayor to buy himself a tricked-out SUV "to pick up energy leaders" and then how energy prices skyrocketed. The cartoon SUV keeps driving right up the steps of the Capitol building, and the tag line is something like "If Greg Davis gets into Congress, he'll fit right in."

This is backed up by facts unlike the NRCC's ad that relies on websites of unknown origin.

Thank you DCCC!

Kos Front Pager on MS-1

The lead story for the hour on Daily Kos is about MS-1. Here is a link.

Daily Kos blog on MS-1

I ran across this diary today. The author is from Missouri. I was so happy to see a diary on this topic on a big blog like Kos. If we can generate enough conversation on the national blogs about Childers, then maybe we can help him raise money. He is going to need it. One encouraging note is that the Dems outdrew the GOP by 3,000 votes. Can you imagine if we had three out of four districts painted BLUE?

Exit Polling And Other Such Info

Can be found at MyDD and Daily Kos who will be getting it up fast that I anyway.

Will Bardwell has also offered some observations.

Week in Review Delegate Style

Numbers from a post by Kos.

Since last Tuesday the following super delegates have pledged:

Obama (12)
DNC Carol Fowler (SC), 3-4-08
Mary Long (GA), 3-4-08
Roy LaVerne Brooks (TX), 3-4-08
Rhine McLin (OH), 3-5-08
DNC Jane Kidd (GA), 3-5-08
DNC Darlena Williams-Burnett (IL), 3-5-08
DNC Connie Thurman (IN), 3-6-08
Rep. Nick Rahall (WV), 3-6-08
DNC Teresa Benitez-Thompson (NV), 3-6-08
DNC Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker (CA), 3-7-08
Rep. Bill Foster (IL), 3-9-08
DNC Mary Jo Neville (OH), 3-9-08

Clinton (4)
Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA), 3-6-08
DNC Mona Mohib (DC), 3-6-08
DNC Aleita Huguenin (CA), 3-7-08
DNC Mary Lou Winters (LA), 3-8-08


Primary Results by Delegates

Obama Clinton
OH 66 ---- 75
RI 8 ----- 13
VT 9 ----- 6
TX 99 ---- 94
WY 7 ----- 5
Total 189 193

Totals:

Obama ---- 201
Clinton ----197

Like Kos noted, a few more "bad" weeks for Obama like this and he can wrap up the nomination.

Yes we can!

Dissenting Opinions On The Pro-Republican / Pro-Wicker Decision

Supreme Court Justice Graves:

GRAVES, JUSTICE, DISSENTING: ¶32. Much of what has been written by the majority in the instant case would be dismissed as mere gobbledygook but for the fact that it is being promulgated by a venerable institution in our democracy, the Mississippi Supreme Court. This majority decision erodes that veneration.

brownsox @ Daily Kos:

The majority has ruled, essentially, that a year can be intepreted as meaning 365 days, rather than a calendar year, and that the meaning of the word "shall" is ambiguous in this context and does not necessarily mean something that will occur in the future.

I agree with Justice Graves that that is a rather ridiculous intepretation, but it is what it is.

Statement by Musgrove Campaign Manager Amanda Crumley:

While it is disappointing that Governor Barbour seeks to anoint the next United States Senator from Mississippi instead of letting the people of this great state vote as quickly as possible in a currently scheduled March election and in accordance with state law, the Mississippi Supreme Court’s decision today does not change the direction of Ronnie Musgrove’s campaign for the United States Senate.

The bad news today is not that we now have a longer campaign to run, but that Mississippi will be stuck for another nine months with the same type of Washington nonsense from Roger Wicker.

Mississippi Democratic Party Chairman Wayne Dowdy:

“I respectfully disagree with the court’s decision,” Dowdy said. “We had hoped that the people would be permitted to vote as soon as possible and elect a senator rather than have a politician appoint someone to serve for a long period of time.

#1 National Political Blog (DailyKos) on Mississippi Republicans and the Senate Race

It's not considered polite to reproduce a work in its entirety without the permission of the author. I think I can assume that Markos Moulitas will forgive me for reproducing his analysis on the open senate race:

Mississippi Republicans are in a bind.

First, Lott wants out by the end of this year so new ethics guidelines that prohibit former members of Congress from lobbying for two years, rather than one. And we all know that Lott is ditching the people of Mississippi so he can cash in on K Street. He admitted it.

So Lott needs to be out by Dec. 31. However, if he does that, Mississippi law requires a special election within 90 days, and a low-turnout special might hurt the GOP. They want the presidential race to boost Republican turnout in a state that leans heavily Republican in presidential elections.

So what will win, Lott's desire to cash out ASAP, or the GOP's desire to maximize their possibilities of holding that seat? Well, if you're a Republican, there's always option 3: lie and obfuscate the law and try to pull a fast one on everyone else:

Pursuant to Mississippi law, specifically § 23-15-855 (1), of the Mississippi Code, once the resignation takes effect, I will call a Special Election for United States Senator to be held on November 4, 2008, being the regular general election day for the 2008 congressional elections.

Further, within ten days of Senator Lott’s resignation’s taking effect, I will appoint a Senator to serve until the winner of the Special Election for United States Senator is elected and commissioned, as provided in § 23-15-855 (2) of the Mississippi Code. My goal is to appoint the best qualified person who can do the most for our state and country.

Ha ha ha, that Haley. Such a joker. The law:

(1) If a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator from Mississippi by death, resignation or otherwise, the Governor shall, within ten (10) days after receiving official notice of such vacancy, issue his proclamation for an election to be held... within ninety (90) days from the time the proclamation is issued and the returns of such election shall be certified to the Governor in the manner set out above for regular elections, unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor's proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator, and the vacancy shall be filled by appointment as hereinafter provided.

You get that? The law essentially mandates a special election within 100 days of the retirement. Barbour is trying to argue that the key point is the "proclamation", not the date the vacancy occurs. As election law expert Rick Hasen notes:

[T]he key question is the date of the "vacancy," not the date of the official notice or the date of the proclamation of the special election. If Lott indeed resigns in 2007, the vacancy is in 2007 and the election must occur under the 10/90 day rule described above.

And the Hill reports that MS's secretary of state (a Democrat, until the winners of the 2007 elections get sworn in later in January) agrees.

Gov. Haley Barbour (R) said in a statement Monday that he would schedule the special election for the same day as the November 2008 general election. State law, however, appears to require an earlier date if Lott retires this year, as he said he would.

While Lott sneaks in under the wire for the extended ban on lobbying Congress by retiring this year, the secretary of state’s office said Monday that state law appears to require a special election within 90 days if he does so.

Conversely, if Lott were to wait and retire in 2008, the law allows for the special election to be held the same day as the general. Of course, he would then be subject to the new two-year ban on lobbying his former colleagues, instead of the current one-year ban.

Lott will have a choice to make -- suck it up and wait an extra year before cashing out on K Street, or screw his party over one last time. And if Barbour persists on trying to rewrite state law, he'll have to likely justify his efforts in a court of law.

Update: Email press release:

JACKSON (Monday, Nov. 26, 2007) –Wayne Dowdy, chairman of the Mississippi Democratic Party, issued the following statement after U.S. Sen. Trent Lott announced plans to resign from office by the end of the year.

“According to multiple news reports, Senator Lott intends to resign his seat by the end of the year. Section 23-15-855 (1) of the Mississippi Code makes clear that if Senator Lott does indeed resign during this calendar year, as stated, then Governor Barbour must call a special election for within 90 days of making a proclamation – which he must issue within 10 days of the resignation – and not on Nov. 4, 2008, as he has announced he intends to do.

“We will wait for Senator Lott’s official notice of resignation, when he will undoubtedly announce the exact date he will leave office. But if he does resign this calendar year we expect the governor to uphold the law and call a special election within 100 days. It is important that Mississippi be represented in Washington by a senator who was elected by the state’s voters as soon as possible.”

.....end of Daily Kos post.....

I'd say he did an excellent job.