MS-01: DCCC locks in a million for Travis Childers advertising

Thanks to the diligence of the fellows at Swing State Project we have this good campaign finance news to report. The DCCC has locked in 1.06M in advertising for Travis Childers in his bid to defend his seat in the first congressional district, from once beaten Southaven mayor, Greg Davis.

As James at SSP points out, this does not mean the DCCC will spend the entire 1.06M. By reserving ad time early and in bulk, they qualify for reduced rates. Either way, money will be there from the DCCC for Travis if he needs it. Let's hope he does not need any help. Last report had Davis raising less than $10,000 in June, so maybe he is folding up tent?

MS-01: 2Q fundraising numbers out (updated)

Thanks to the guys at Swing State Project, who do a workmanlike job of compiling campaign finance reports into neat, easy-to-read charts, we have some good data to report. Last night at midnight was the FEC deadline to report the 2Q fundraising totals by congressional candidates. Here is what we have.

Travis Childers raised $1,032,000 from April 24 to June 30. His opponent Greg Davis raised $712,000 during the same period. The special election runoff was April 23, therefore the late start for the quarter. Childers has $161,000 Cash-on-Hand compared to $54,000 for Davis.

James at Swing State Project added this juicy detail after the original post.

Greg Davis' heart just isn't in it anymore. Despite raising over $700K from April 24 through June 30th, the Nathan Lane lookalike took in under $10,000 in the month of June.

Sunday Kos: Could Obama win Mississippi?

On Sunday's the Daily Kos runs the blogosphere version of the Sunday New York Times. They feature around 10 front page articles that are each in depth, long reads. Much to my surprise one of the features was "Could Obama win Mississippi?" by DavidNYC. Y'all may know David (and James) from Swing State Project. DavidNYC and SSP raised $3,500 for Travis Childers. Combined with Cotton Mouth's $1,925, our wing of the proressive blogosphere raised well over $5,000. Not bad for a bunch of guys in their PJ's iin their parent's basement. ;)

Read full article here: "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

For instance, exit polls show that black primary turnout spiked in South Carolina this year. African Americans made up 47% of the primary electorate in 2004 but 55% in 2008. (I use SC rather than MS as a basis for comparison because SC was contested in both years. Kerry had already wrapped up the nomination before MS voted in 2004, so those primary numbers are not meaningful.

The black vote was also very heavy in the recent MS-01 special election (won by Democrat Travis Childers). What’s more, between the first round on April 22nd and the run-off on May 13th, turnout soared in counties with large black populations, in some instances doubling. Many people have cited not just Obama’s popularity as the cause for this outpouring of support, but the relentless GOP attacks on him as well – attacks which will surely continue, and continue to galvanize.

David after displaying some charts you should really go read along with the full article. "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

Three things have to happen here - what I call the "ten, ten, ten" plan. First, the black share of the vote has to shoot up to 40%, pushing the white vote down to 60%. This would represent a shift of about ten points in the racial composition of the vote. Second, Obama has to run ten points better among blacks than Kerry did. And third, he also has to run ten points better among whites than Kerry did.

The question, of course, is whether all of these things actually can happen. As I explain above, there’s already ample reason to believe that black turnout will break all kinds of records. Similarly, with Republicans so utterly demoralized and their party all but shattered, I can definitely see the conservative white vote getting depressed. (Certainly, the GOP loss in MS-01 isn’t helping morale much.) Consequently, I think we're more likely than not to see a materially different black-white voting mix in MS on election day. Will it really shift ten points? Hard to say, as there isn't much precedent for a candidacy like Obama's, but I think it could....

...Obviously, it’s very easy to play with numbers and tweak them just enough to come out the way you’d like. And as I said at the start of this piece, the scenario I’m outlining is not at all likely. But what’s important is that it’s possible, thanks to the unusual candidate, state demographics, and election year we have before us. And the mere fact that you can even talk about Obama competing in MS with a straight face means that the GOP will be sweating bullets. If they have to spend so much as a dollar here to defend the state, that alone will constitute victory.

Yes We Can!!

One Man's Opinion

After cooling off for the majority of the day, I have to come to several points in my thoughts about last night's huge win by Travis Childers in MS-01. Well actually I hard to work so hard I never got to sit down in front of my computer, but at least I unplugged and let my ideas percolate.

1. Our number one biggest job heading to November is to register voters. We need to have voter registration drives in every county. This is crucial in building our new majority.

2. The race-baiting, scary liberal, the other guy is Satan bit came up dry this time, thank God. People are starting to figure out this small government, no health care, endless war, tax cuts for the wealthy style of government is not in their best interest.

3. With that said, yes the geography worked in our favor this time. But the Republicans are stuck with Greg Davis for November. That means it will be 2010 before they can ditch Davis and come back the eastern part of the state to counter Childers. By then Travis will have the all-powerful role of incumbency. As long as we, as in Democrats, don't drop the ball like the Republicans did, we will be fine.

4. Barack Obama can make Mississippi competitive in November. He likely won't win, but I bet the GOP and it minions drop way more cash here than they would prefer. This will be repeated all over the South. Obama will win at least 2 states in Dixie, probably 3.

5. Ronnie Musgrove can win. I would put it at 50-50, except for his fundraising disadvantage. I have started a fundraising page for Ronnie that you will see plenty of soon. I would think the DSCC will take note of what happened to their friends at the DCCC, when the DCCC rolled a little money behind a solid Mississippi Democrat and came up a winner.

6. Dear Republicans:



Updated: Post of year by James at Swing State Project.

Swing State Project MS-01 Update

Visit our friends at Swing State Project for the full read. Swing State Project raised $3,500 for Childers on an ActBlue page like ours. SSP has a man on the ground in MS-01, Trent Thompson who is working for the Childers for Congress campaign. Trent called in some updates that are highlighted below.

- Trent's been cris-crossing the district, from Tupelo to Booneville to the Southaven area delivering literature for canvassers, and he's seen all of five Greg Davis signs -- compared to "literally hundreds" for Travis Childers. Childers is winning the sign wars even in areas closer to Davis' home turf.

- Trent describes the atmosphere in Booneville, where the Childers campaign HQ is located, as a total "lovefest for Travis". Not surprising, given that Childers won 85% of the vote in the area (Prentiss County) on April 22nd.

- Dick Cheney's comments on visiting south Memphis have rankled people in the Tupelo area. Childers has been working that story into his recent stump speeches, saying that Memphis doesn't need another congressman -- Mississippi does.

- Childers is up with an ad on African-American radio hitting Davis on his campaign event with Cheney. Childers will need strong turnout from the black community on Tuesday.

Visit Swing State Project and bookmark it. It is the best resource on the internets for keeping up with important congressional races.

MS-01: The stretch run expenditures

The following expenditures were posted yesterday for the big race Tuesday.

From Swing State Project

The NRCC posted a big list of expenditures in Mississippi today, just days before this hotly-contested special election comes to a close on Tuesday:

$151,000 on an ad buy
$17,500 on media production
$7500 on phonebanking
$35,000 on direct mail
$4400 on polling

The DCCC:

$63,000 on media buys
$13,500 on literature
$14,500 on media production
$7000 on field organizing

Total spent:
NRCC: $1,273,145
DCCC: $1,742,121

MS-01: Cash still flowing freely

Thanks to the boys at Swing State Project for the lead.

The NRCC made a $21,000 buy on polling and direct mail today.

The DCCC made a $195,000 buy comprising of media, direct mail, phonebanking, and field organizing.

The Party totals now stand at:
$1,052,296 for the NRCC
$1,618,690 for the DCCC

DCCC fires another $100,000 at MS-01

Today's FEC filings show a total expenditure of $97,250.29 by the DCCC.

The boys at Swing State Project sum it up as:

The expenditures include a $63,000 media buy against Greg Davis, $30,000 on direct mail, and $4000 on field organizing for Travis Childers.

So far, the DCCC has spent a whopping $1,389,318 in this district to the NRCC's $982,600.

New MS-01 Expenditures

Swing State Project is the king of information for campaign expenditures. Not to mention they raised $2,700 for Travis Childers. I want to thank them for all they do.

The NRCC just made an additional $31,000 buy in MS-01, while the DCCC reported expenditures totaling $139,000.

New totals:
NRCC: $982,600
DCCC: $1,282,835

Swing State Project:: MS-01: More Money Moves

Swing State Project preview for MS-01 and LA-06

Here is the whole post, containing a preview for just about every race in May.

Swing State

MS-01: The big event. Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election. Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. But the DCCC is playing to win, and they've invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race. This one should be close.

and this to add on LA-06:

LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with "newspaper editor" Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker. In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls. However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

We'll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact. The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead. SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then. There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

DCCC makes $700,000 media buy in MS-01

As reported by our friends at Swing State Project.

The DCCC just made a huge independent expenditure in Mississippi today, to the tune of $702,642.

The expenditures include $350K on an ad buys hitting GOP candidate Greg Davis, and another $350K on a media buy supporting Democrat Travis Childers. They've also thrown in a grand on phonebanking

As James said on SSP, the DCCC has now dropped a whopping 1.1 million in MS-01. The NRCC has spent about $600,000. The problem is the NRCC is cash spent and only had 7.1 million on hand compared to the over 30 million in the DCCC coffer.

My thought for the NRCC is, spend it in your own backyard boys!!

There is nothing better than seeing the NRCC playing defense in an R+10 district!!

Here at Cotton Mouth we set a goal of raising $1,000. We are getting there with $330 in the bank. Please donate NOW. $100, $50, $25, $10, $5, whatever you have, please.

Childers for Congress

MS-01: Blog Roundup

DavidNYC over at Swing State Project has become a hero of mine for quite some time and really even more this week. He has raised over $1600, at this time, for Travis Childers from people all over the country. Today SSP has a great post on the economic populism of Travis Childers and why we should be excited.

Swing State Project - MS-01 Childers the Populist

It's regular folks who have his sympathy - and that's why Travis Childers needs our help. But as with Iraq, a Childers victory can send a clear message: that running on a populist message works. At the same time, it will help drive a stake through the heart of stale, pernicious DLC-style politics. Childers can continue the line of victories that began with Tester and Webb and show Democrats that the way to bigger majorities this fall requires that we meaningfully address the concerns of average Americans.

Over at Huffington Post there was this snippet on MS-01.

Republicans are now rushing in to hurt Obama further. The North Carolina Republican party is indicating that its ad will start running tomorrow; and Wright has now worked his way to Mississippi. Last week, Democratic Travis Childers came within 400 votes of picking-up heavily Republican MS-01 in a special election; now, Greg Davis, the trailing Republican candidate, has released an ad blasting Childers for his connection to "liberal Barack Obama." The ad uses footage of a sermon by Wright and accuses Childers of having said nothing when Obama's preacher "was cursing" America. The ad concludes by accusing Childers of choosing Obama over MS-01's "conservative values." (Watch this attack ad here.) After insisting that NC Republicans don't air their ads, McCain is not stepping in this time; Wright has become fair game for Republicans to an extent that was not expected to come about for many more weeks....

...This only means that the runoff of MS-01 will likely be interpreted as a test of Obama's electability. With Childers on the verge of winning in the first round, would a defeat signify that Obama is indeed a drag on local Democrats? This question is in many way unfair: Davis and Childers came in within 3% on April 22nd and the NRCC is mobilizing in the district; there are many other factors that could explain a Davis victory. Furthermore, MS-01 is a very Republican district that voted for Bush with 62%. Any nationalization of this election is likely to hurt Childers insofar as the Democrat's hopes of winning here are predicated on his convincing voters that he is very conservative. But with Davis's decision to drag Obama and Wright to the stage of a Mississippi congressional election, it is almost inevitable that the results will be read through a national lens.

Eric Kleefield over TPM has this to say about the negative attack ad.

The latest FEC filings show an ad buy of over $260,000 -- meaning that the cash-strapped NRCC sees both a real need to spend money in this deep-red district, and also some real potential for using Barack Obama's name to poison down-ticket Dem chances.

Please Donate to Childers for Congress

Swing State Project endorses Childers and to fundraise

Swing State Project is a national blog that covers congressional races. While they are a great source of information for just about any contested race (they are known for the campaign financing reporting), they rarely endorse a candidate. They support all progressive Democrats but rarely go as far as to endorse and actively fund raise. The last time was the Tester race in Montana in 2006.

This is great news to see the progressive blogosphere focused on a Mississippi congressional race. Websites like Swing State Project, Daily Kos, MyDD, etc.. played not a small role in the 2006 Democratic electoral victories. This is the new face of politics. The ability for a large group of small donors to make a difference is the essence of people powered politics.

From Swing State Project:

The Swing State Project is doing something that we haven't done since the early days of Jon Tester's race in Montana -- independently of any other blog, we're laying our cards down on the table and offering our endorsement and fundraising support to a congressional candidate: Democrat Travis Childers, who is running in the special election to replace Roger Wicker in the House of Representatives.
We've had our eye on MS-01 for some time, giving it a competitive rating before any other major prognosticator did so. Travis Childers bore out our projections and then exceeded them, coming just 400 or so votes shy of outright victory in the special election on April 22nd. Now he faces a two-candidate run-off on May 13th. This is a very winnable race, but only if Childers gets all the help he needs.
Childers, the Chancery Clerk of Prentiss County for nearly two decades, is a serious economic populist with true-blue small town Mississippi roots. He supports S-CHIP, opposes CAFTA and wants us to withdraw our troops from Iraq in 12 to 18 months. And he holds these populist positions in a heavily red district: MS-01's PVI is R+10, and it gave Bush 62% of its vote in 2004. If Childers can win this seat, it will be a crippling blow to the NRCC, who have spent nearly $300,000 against Childers, only to come up short last Tuesday. But we can be sure that they'll be back in full force, doing all they can to hang on to this seat in May. And that's why we have to step up and fight back.
Our goal: $2300 for Childers. In other words, that's the equivalent of one "maxed out" big dollar donation.
Together, we can do this. So please support Travis Childers today with whatever you can manage.

Blue Dogs Offer Endorsement but Little Cash

Last week the "Blue Dogs" endorsed Travis Childers for the MS-01 seat. While they are not my favorite democratic group, their endorsement was much needed at the time. Now what is needed is money, which the Blue Dogs have plenty of, but have offered little.

Jason at Swing State Project stays on top of campaign financing like no one else. He noted today that only 3 of the 47 members of the "Blue Dogs" had donated anything to Childers. The grand total a paltry $5,000.

Come on guys, the ones of you not in a big fight can pony up to the Childers for Congress campaign. We need your help.