Sunday Kos: Could Obama win Mississippi?

On Sunday's the Daily Kos runs the blogosphere version of the Sunday New York Times. They feature around 10 front page articles that are each in depth, long reads. Much to my surprise one of the features was "Could Obama win Mississippi?" by DavidNYC. Y'all may know David (and James) from Swing State Project. DavidNYC and SSP raised $3,500 for Travis Childers. Combined with Cotton Mouth's $1,925, our wing of the proressive blogosphere raised well over $5,000. Not bad for a bunch of guys in their PJ's iin their parent's basement. ;)

Read full article here: "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

For instance, exit polls show that black primary turnout spiked in South Carolina this year. African Americans made up 47% of the primary electorate in 2004 but 55% in 2008. (I use SC rather than MS as a basis for comparison because SC was contested in both years. Kerry had already wrapped up the nomination before MS voted in 2004, so those primary numbers are not meaningful.

The black vote was also very heavy in the recent MS-01 special election (won by Democrat Travis Childers). What’s more, between the first round on April 22nd and the run-off on May 13th, turnout soared in counties with large black populations, in some instances doubling. Many people have cited not just Obama’s popularity as the cause for this outpouring of support, but the relentless GOP attacks on him as well – attacks which will surely continue, and continue to galvanize.

David after displaying some charts you should really go read along with the full article. "Could Obama win Mississippi?"

Three things have to happen here - what I call the "ten, ten, ten" plan. First, the black share of the vote has to shoot up to 40%, pushing the white vote down to 60%. This would represent a shift of about ten points in the racial composition of the vote. Second, Obama has to run ten points better among blacks than Kerry did. And third, he also has to run ten points better among whites than Kerry did.

The question, of course, is whether all of these things actually can happen. As I explain above, there’s already ample reason to believe that black turnout will break all kinds of records. Similarly, with Republicans so utterly demoralized and their party all but shattered, I can definitely see the conservative white vote getting depressed. (Certainly, the GOP loss in MS-01 isn’t helping morale much.) Consequently, I think we're more likely than not to see a materially different black-white voting mix in MS on election day. Will it really shift ten points? Hard to say, as there isn't much precedent for a candidacy like Obama's, but I think it could....

...Obviously, it’s very easy to play with numbers and tweak them just enough to come out the way you’d like. And as I said at the start of this piece, the scenario I’m outlining is not at all likely. But what’s important is that it’s possible, thanks to the unusual candidate, state demographics, and election year we have before us. And the mere fact that you can even talk about Obama competing in MS with a straight face means that the GOP will be sweating bullets. If they have to spend so much as a dollar here to defend the state, that alone will constitute victory.

Yes We Can!!

Lets do it again. New Cotton Mouth for Childers goal: $2,300

I know, we already met the stated goal, but you guys met it too fast and this is too important. The DCCC is doing their part with media buys, but Travis needs money to coordinate the GOTV effort. This race is going to be won by who can best GOTV. The money we raise will likely be used in ground level operations.

We won LA-06 with Don Cazayoux last night. Let's focus our energies on making this a clean sweep in taking back ruby red districts for the people. I am going to shill on the internets for support from activists all over the country. Lets show them we stand for change down here in Mississippi.

We are going to set the new goal at $2,300 which is the limit for an individual donor. We can of course give more, but we would represent one big donor if we meet our goal. We are at $1,130 so I am going to give $20 more and put us at halfway ($1,150 for you mathematically challenged).

If you have some extra change, send a little to Travis Childers so we can turn Mississippi blue and Haley Barbour red.

Cotton Mouth for Childers

Daily Journal: Huckabee to campaign for Greg Davis

I had heard this through the grapevine a couple of days ago, but now it is confirmed. Former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, also the former governor of Arkansas, is coming down to north Mississippi to help campaign for Greg Davis. Huckabee Will no doubt be here to try and shore up the evangelical vote and help fundraise. In today's "Campaign Notebook" the Daily Journal reported:

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee will be in Tupelo on Saturday to boost the congressional campaign of Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

According to Lee County GOP chairman Mike Maynard, the former Arkansas governor will join Davis for an invitation-only fundraiser at 9 a.m. at the BancorpSouth Conference Center.

Starting about 9:45, the public is invited to meet Davis and Huckabee at Joe Joe's Espresso at 398 E. Main St.

I wonder if they server fried squirrel at Joe Joe's Espresso?

Seriously, at this point in the race, two things are most important, raising money and getting your vote out. Huckabee should be an asset in both areas.

Those of you up north, do everything in your power to get out the vote on May 13. In the meantime give a little cash to the Childers for Congress Campaign. We are over half way to our goal at Cotton Mouth.