MS-01: DCCC locks in a million for Travis Childers advertising

Thanks to the diligence of the fellows at Swing State Project we have this good campaign finance news to report. The DCCC has locked in 1.06M in advertising for Travis Childers in his bid to defend his seat in the first congressional district, from once beaten Southaven mayor, Greg Davis.

As James at SSP points out, this does not mean the DCCC will spend the entire 1.06M. By reserving ad time early and in bulk, they qualify for reduced rates. Either way, money will be there from the DCCC for Travis if he needs it. Let's hope he does not need any help. Last report had Davis raising less than $10,000 in June, so maybe he is folding up tent?

New York Times: Republican troubles

I am not one to gloat but, in this case I can't help it. The gold standard of journalism, The New York Times, described the level of panic in the GOP. It is every man for himself...

But Mr. McCain’s advisers said the Mississippi race underlined his intention to distance himself as much as possible from Congressional Republicans. Mr. McCain has already been openly critical of some of President Bush’s strategies.

The level of distress was evident in remarks by senior party officials throughout the day.

OK, so McCain is going to distance himself from Bush and the Republicans in Congress? That sounds as lonely as the Maytag repairman, and achievable as perpetual motion. Do you think for one minute the DNC or Barack Obama is going to let him get too far from Bush? He has already bought into the big two, the Bush tax cuts and the endless war in Iraq. The American public will see the truth...




And here is one while our people suffered during Katrina. This picture shot on 8/29/05.




Republican Representative Tom Davis of Virgina had this to say,

“They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate,” Mr. Davis said in a memorandum. “The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006.”

They might seriously need to bolt the upstairs windows down at the NRCC, RNC, and NRSC to prevent a tragedy.

Speaker Pelosi congratulates Rep. Childers

Lifted from the DCCC website,

UPDATE: Speaker Pelosi's statement:

"On behalf of the Democratic Caucus, I welcome Congressman-elect Travis Childers to the House of Representatives and congratulate him on his spectacular victory."

As I tell every new Member of Congress, 'your title Representative is your job description.' Travis Childers earned the votes of the people of Mississippi's First Congressional District because he reflects their values and shares their hopes and dreams for the future."

Congressman-elect Childers' message of positive change and bipartisan progress to create jobs, lower gas prices, and improve access to quality health care resonated in Mississippi, just as our candidates' messages did in Illinois and Louisiana in two recent special elections. For the third time this year, Democrats have turned a red seat to blue, provingthat Americans across our country want real solutions and reject Republicans' misleading and negative attacks. For the first time in more than 30 years, Democrats have won three special elections in Republican seats in one cycle."

I look forward to welcoming Congressman-elect Childers and his family to the Capitol and to swearing in the newest Member of the New Direction Congress."

DCCC: Democrat Travis Childers Wins

Lifted from the DCCC website.

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen released the following statement on Travis Childers' victory in the special election runoff in Mississippi's 1st Congressional District. With tonight's win, the Democratic majority in Congress has expanded to 236-199.

"Congratulations to Travis Childers on his stunning victory. His victory has sent a political thunderbolt across America tonight. It is yet another rejection of the House Republican agenda, the Bush Administration's misguided policies, and John McCain's campaign for a third Bush term.

"For the first time in more than 30 years the Democratic Party has picked up three Republican seats in special elections in one cycle. Republicans and their outside groups pulled out all the stops in an attempt to nationalize a congressional race and distract voters away from their own candidates' failure to stand up for middle class families. The NRCC broke the bank and spent nearly 20 percent of their cash on hand on a ruby red district. Travis's victory proves that a Democrat who puts the economy, health care, and homegrown values front and center can win anywhere in America. After three consecutive Special Election defeats in districts President Bush twice won easily, it is abundantly clear the American people have turned their back and shut the door on the special interest driven agenda of the Republican Party. There is no district that is safe for Republican candidates because President Bush's failed policies have hurt every community in America.

"Travis will be a tremendous asset to our Democratic Caucus and a powerful voice in the fight to strengthen our economy, improve education, and make health care more accessible and affordable for America's struggling middle class families."

More national coverage of MS-01

The Washington Post covered the MS-01 special election over the weekend. Here are a few excerpts. They even mention Cheney's visit to South Memphis.

As Losses Mount, GOP Begins Looking in the Mirror

Since losing 30 seats and their 12-year stranglehold on power in 2006, House Republicans have kept asking themselves the same question: Can it get any worse?

On Tuesday, they may get another answer they won't like.

With lots of help from Washington -- including more than $1.3 million in campaign cash and a last-minute visit by Vice President Cheney -- Mississippi Republicans are desperately trying to retain a congressional seat in one of the most reliably conservative districts in the nation.

The stakes in the 1st District special election couldn't be higher, strategically or symbolically. The loss of a traditionally GOP seat to a Democrat would be the third in a special election this spring and the second in the Deep South after the May 3 victory of Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.).

Rank-and-file Republicans say that would force a day of reckoning for their leadership. "When you connect three dots in anything, that's a bad thing. This connects the dots. At that point, everybody's got to come together and have a come-to-Jesus meeting," said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a retiring centrist who will help form a new advisory panel at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

"It's a time of sober reflection and, to some extent, resolve. I hope these special elections are a wake-up call," said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.), the leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee.

Democratic leaders have stopped tamping down expectations and instead have set a new goal for the November elections of establishing a long-lasting majority that could dominate the chamber.

Independent analysts agree that a loss Tuesday would leave Republicans with no excuses. They blamed poor candidates in races in Louisiana and Illinois, where the GOP lost a special election for the seat long held by former House speaker J. Dennis Hastert.

"The Republicans would be ignoring reality if they try to explain away this race," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

Since 1994, Republican Roger Wicker has been reelected to his House seat with between 63 and 79 percent of the vote. But with Wicker appointed to the Senate to fill the seat vacated by Trent Lott, who retired, Republicans are having difficulty unifying behind Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, a Memphis suburb in the northwest corner of the 1st District. Davis beat a Republican from the eastern portion of the district in the March primary. That win puts Davis on the ballot in November, whether he wins or loses this week's special election.

The NRCC already has committed $1.3 million to the approach in Mississippi, triple the amount it spent in Louisiana.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), a former Republican National Committee chairman, has collected donations for Davis from party committees in such far-away states as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Cheney arrives Monday evening for a get-out-the-vote rally.

"Republicans are committed to winning in Mississippi, and we believe the momentum is on our side," said Ken Spain, NRCC spokesman.

Democrats say they have nothing to lose. "It's hard to see any upside for Republicans," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which had a cash advantage of $44.3 million to $7.2 million over its counterpart on March 31.

By pouring $2.9 million into the Louisiana and Mississippi special elections, the Democrats have forced the NRCC to spend $1.7 million to defend its territory.

MS-01: DCCC ad for Childers

This one came out over a week ago, but I don't think we ever posted it. I hope they are still running this one, it is pretty good. You gotta love the SUV at the end.

MS-01: The stretch run expenditures

The following expenditures were posted yesterday for the big race Tuesday.

From Swing State Project

The NRCC posted a big list of expenditures in Mississippi today, just days before this hotly-contested special election comes to a close on Tuesday:

$151,000 on an ad buy
$17,500 on media production
$7500 on phonebanking
$35,000 on direct mail
$4400 on polling

The DCCC:

$63,000 on media buys
$13,500 on literature
$14,500 on media production
$7000 on field organizing

Total spent:
NRCC: $1,273,145
DCCC: $1,742,121

MS-01: Two ways YOU can help Travis Childers

Here at Cotton Mouth we have devoted a large chunk of our time to doing whatever we can to help our friend Travis Childers get to Washington. The race is tight, and the polls open Tuesday. That means at 7:00AM on Saturday we will be in the 72 hour window preceding the election. What can you do to help Travis Childers? You can drive up to north Mississippi and help the GOTV effort. If that is out of the question, or just more than you up to doing, we have two other ways to help.

1. Donate to Travis before tomorrow. The Childers campaign said they would be able to use every dollar contributed up until 72 hours before the election. This is your last chance to make a difference before next Tuesday.

2. Phonebank for Travis using this virtual phonebanking center set up by the DCCC. One of our readers gave himself hand cramps from dialing the phone a couple of weeks ago in a phonebanking effort for Travis. Phonebanking is an easy way to help the GOTV effort. If you are a regular blogger, you are probably in your Mom's basement in your pajamas, so don't worry you won't have to change. If you are little nervous about calling strangers, read this diary from Daily Kos - 5 MYTHS about phonebanking.

MS-01: DCCC files third complaint to FEC

This is posted on the DCCC website.

DCCC Press:

The DCCC filed a complaint today with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) against Freedom's Watch, a shadowy outside group, for failing to report its spending on television ads it's running against Democratic candidate Travis Childers (MS-01) and ran against Congressman Don Cazayoux (LA-06).

Freedom's Watch is operating as the cash-strapped NRCC's de facto independent expenditure campaign.

"Clearly, Freedom's Watch thinks they are above the law," said Jennifer Crider, Communications Director at the DCCC. "Freedom's Watch is trying to hide their spending on attack ads against Travis Childers and that's illegal. As the NRCC looks to Freedom's Watch to save them, the NRCC, Republican Members, and Republican candidates need to decide whether it's worth it to return to the hay days of Republicans' culture of corruption by being tied to a group that regularly breaks the law."

This is the third complaint the DCCC has filed with the FEC on the political attack ads that Freedom's Watch is running in the LA-06 and MS-01 special elections:

On April 16, 2008, the DCCC filed an FEC complaint against Freedom's Watch and the NRCC for illegal coordination of their attack ads. A script from one of Freedom's Watch's ads contained electronic identifiers linking it to the NRCC. The message, images, and citations in both the Freedom's Watch ad and NRCC ad are nearly identical.

On April 23, 2008, the DCCC filed an FEC complaint for running a political attack ad that directly and illegally advocates the defeat of a Democratic candidate and also for failing to disclose the names of the donors funding that ad.

On April 29, 2008, the DCCC requested the Internal Revenue Service investigate Freedom's Watch. Freedom's Watch violated its tax exempt status by running political attack ads against Democratic candidate Don Cazayoux in the LA-06 special election, designed to benefit the NRCC and the Republican candidate. Freedom's Watch meets five of the six criteria the IRS uses to determine that a group is political - not a tax exempt 501(c)(4).

You can read the actual letter here:

Link to DCCC letter to the FEC

MS-01: Cash still flowing freely

Thanks to the boys at Swing State Project for the lead.

The NRCC made a $21,000 buy on polling and direct mail today.

The DCCC made a $195,000 buy comprising of media, direct mail, phonebanking, and field organizing.

The Party totals now stand at:
$1,052,296 for the NRCC
$1,618,690 for the DCCC

Cotton Mouth for Childers: Give Today!

We just received an email from the DCCC stating that we had until midnight tonight to make a contribution for Travis Childers that could be used in time for this special election. The special election is a week from yesterday, May 13.

Here is a link to the statement from the DCCC.

http://dccc.org/blog/archives/dccc_exec_dir_wolff_mississippi/

If you have some spare change, give it to Childers for Congress today. We thank all of you who have helped make this a success so far.

MS-01: New DCCC Ads On The Air

This ad is a contrast piece. It seeks to rebut the false tax attacks by "Freedom's Watch" and frames the race as a local (Childers) versus national (Davis).



This is a strictly negative ad on Davis. It's strength is that all of the talking is done by residents of the 1st Congressional District so they are literally neighbors of folks who will be voting next week. The overall theme is that Davis would be just like all the other corrupt politicians in Washington and if the way he has run his campaign is any indications I suspect they are right.

Thanks to The Thorn Papers for getting these up.

DCCC fires another $100,000 at MS-01

Today's FEC filings show a total expenditure of $97,250.29 by the DCCC.

The boys at Swing State Project sum it up as:

The expenditures include a $63,000 media buy against Greg Davis, $30,000 on direct mail, and $4000 on field organizing for Travis Childers.

So far, the DCCC has spent a whopping $1,389,318 in this district to the NRCC's $982,600.

New MS-01 Expenditures

Swing State Project is the king of information for campaign expenditures. Not to mention they raised $2,700 for Travis Childers. I want to thank them for all they do.

The NRCC just made an additional $31,000 buy in MS-01, while the DCCC reported expenditures totaling $139,000.

New totals:
NRCC: $982,600
DCCC: $1,282,835

Swing State Project:: MS-01: More Money Moves

Swing State Project preview for MS-01 and LA-06

Here is the whole post, containing a preview for just about every race in May.

Swing State

MS-01: The big event. Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election. Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. But the DCCC is playing to win, and they've invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race. This one should be close.

and this to add on LA-06:

LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with "newspaper editor" Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker. In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls. However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

We'll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact. The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead. SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then. There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

DCCC makes $700,000 media buy in MS-01

As reported by our friends at Swing State Project.

The DCCC just made a huge independent expenditure in Mississippi today, to the tune of $702,642.

The expenditures include $350K on an ad buys hitting GOP candidate Greg Davis, and another $350K on a media buy supporting Democrat Travis Childers. They've also thrown in a grand on phonebanking

As James said on SSP, the DCCC has now dropped a whopping 1.1 million in MS-01. The NRCC has spent about $600,000. The problem is the NRCC is cash spent and only had 7.1 million on hand compared to the over 30 million in the DCCC coffer.

My thought for the NRCC is, spend it in your own backyard boys!!

There is nothing better than seeing the NRCC playing defense in an R+10 district!!

Here at Cotton Mouth we set a goal of raising $1,000. We are getting there with $330 in the bank. Please donate NOW. $100, $50, $25, $10, $5, whatever you have, please.

Childers for Congress

Republican Strategist: $1,000,000 needed to defend MS-01

The national press is buzzing about the special election results from last Tuesday. While they are shocked to see a Democrat winning such a red district, most all express concern for the Republican party in November. The RNCC only has around 8 million cash on hand, while their counterparts the DCCC has over 30 million to spend. You don't have to be an expert to realize it is an act of defense for the GOP to have to drop funds in a R+10 district. As of yesterday the total expenditures for the RNCC in MS-01 was around $570,000. The DCCC has spent around $375,000 on the Childers for Congress campaign.

Now today comes this from the Chicago Sun Times columnist Robert Novak.

Million-dollar seat

Stunned by results of Tuesday's special congressional election in Mississippi, Republican strategists are saying it will require spending at least $1 million to save the House seat for the GOP.

The Democratic candidate, County Clerk Travis Childers, fell only 700 votes shy of winning the strongly conservative northern Mississippi district outright without a runoff. Massive financial help from Washington is expected by Republican strategists to be necessary to save the seat for Southaven Mayor Greg Davis against Childers in the May 13 runoff. The seat, in a district that George W. Bush carried for president in 2004 with 62 percent of the vote, became vacant when Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate.

Childers, a social conservative, is better known through the district than Davis. The Democrat's strong showing Tuesday also reflected the nationwide Republican malaise, which extends even to the Deep South.

That is a lot of bread for the GOP to spend in Mississippi. This is money that can't be used in other races across the nation.

Let's donate to Childers for Congress and help him overcome the RNCC expenditures. We can't wait around for the DCCC to come riding in. In my estimation the DCCC is focused on the LA-06 special election coming up Saturday, where the Dems stand a good chance of flipping their second seat of the season.

NRCC fires in another $275,000 on negative ads against Childers

Yesterday the RNCC, the congressional race fundraising arm of the GOP, announced the expenditure of $275,000 on negative campaign ads to be run against Travis Childers. The RNCC has now spent $570,518 on the MS-01 congressional race, a victory in its own right for DCCC. Childers was outspent 2-1 in the special election, but still won more votes because of his message. Voters are ready for change and that is exactly what Travis Childers will bring.

The negative ads are wearing thin on Mississippi voters. Let's send the GOP a message that we want answers to issues not negative attack ads. We need to help Travis win this seat by donating what little we can to help the cause. We started a fund raising page for Childers last week but have had little response. Give $20, $10, or even $5.

For daily capaign financing news go to Swing State Project.

Update: So far for this race the total spent would be:
RNCC $560,000
DCCC $373,000

Cotton Mouth For Childers

Welcome to a New Democratic Party: A Party That Fights Back!

The DCCC has bought advertising in response to a combined assault by Charles Gregory Davis and the crooked NRCC.

Here's the Report.

Chrississippi at Daily Kos describes the ad:

It's kind of a cartoony look at Davis' spending city money as Mayor to buy himself a tricked-out SUV "to pick up energy leaders" and then how energy prices skyrocketed. The cartoon SUV keeps driving right up the steps of the Capitol building, and the tag line is something like "If Greg Davis gets into Congress, he'll fit right in."

This is backed up by facts unlike the NRCC's ad that relies on websites of unknown origin.

Thank you DCCC!

Today's NRCC: Crooked And They Just Don't Care, Sloppy Too

You may have read about how their treasurer was stealing from them.

Or perhaps you read about how they inflated their cash on hand and then had to backtrack.

Well now there is pretty solid information that they're breaking clear, long established campaign finance law:

The DCCC filed a complaint today with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) against Freedom's Watch and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Freedom's Watch, a shadowy outside group, and the NRCC illegally coordinated their political attack ads against Democratic candidate Don Cazayoux (LA-06).

The Freedom's Watch and the NRCC's television ads are stunningly similar. A little digging revealed why – electronic identifiers show that the NRCC wrote the Freedom's Watch ad.

"The DCCC is filing this FEC complaint to hold Freedom's Watch and the NRCC accountable for their illegal coordination that is being used to mislead voters about Democratic candidates' positions," said Brian Wolff, Executive Director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "Tom Cole may have gotten his wish when Freedom's Watch came to the NRCC's rescue, but breaking the law will be the NRCC's worst nightmare. Freedom's Watch own Word document clearly shows that the script for their ad came from the NRCC – that's clearly illegal."

Freedom's Watch is operating as the cash-strapped NRCC's de facto independent expenditure campaign:

• The script that Freedom's Watch provided television stations running their ads included electronic identifiers indicating that the NRCC created the Word document.
• The NRCC's ad buy in LA-06 ended the day the nearly identical Freedom's Watch ad began airing. The NRCC ad ran from 4/10/08 through 4/16/08. The Freedom's Watch ad began airing as the NRCC went dark – 4/16/08 and is scheduled to run through the special election on 5/03/08.
• The message, images, and citations in both the Freedom's Watch ad and NRCC ad are nearly identical. See for yourself – click here to see images of the ads side by side.
  
• Freedom's Watch is being run by Carl Forti, a longtime NRCC veteran who was responsible for the NRCC's independent expenditure campaigns and communications for nearly a decade. [Washington Post, 3/30/08] This is the same Forti who's responsible for attacks that led Republican Members and Republican candidates to call the NRCC "a rogue attack shop," responsible for "smears," "over-the-top accusations," "demonstrably false" and "misleading" attacks and "political mudslinging." [Boston Globe, 3/04/07]
  
• For the first time in memory, NRCC Chairman Tom Cole welcomed the participation of Freedom's Watch and other outside groups like it in House campaigns, saying "We hope we see them in political races all across the board." [Washington Post, 3/30/08]
  

Tom Cole: at long last have you left no sense of decency?

(The text of the complaint can be found in the comments)