Democrats United Going Into MS-01 Special Election

Steve Holland Has Endorsed Travis Childers for the April 22nd Special Election and the November General Election



From Steve Holland's Website:

I want to say: "Thank you!...With All of my Heart".
I have been honored with such dear and caring friends that have worked tirelessly for the campaign. I have been blessed with many kind words of support, and countless prayers. I am very grateful. I do what I do because of the kind, caring people of Mississippi. I will continue to fight for you as a State Representative in Jackson. Do not hesitate to call on me when I can help you.

I want you to know that Travis Childers is a dear friend of mine. I support him 1,000,000 %. April 22 is the next election that decides who will fulfill the remaining term until the November Election. I want you to help me put Travis in Washington on April 22nd.and keep him in office through the November election.

I can not thank all of you enough for the help and motivation that you have provided in our campaign.

Again, thank you for all of your support.With warmest personal regards, I remain Very Truly Yours,

Steve Holland

Visit Travis Childers' Website HERE

Obama Picks Up a Two Delegate Gain in Mississippi

The final tally of the Mississippi Democratic Primary vote has been made official by the office of the Secretary of State. We thought on the initial numbers that Obama would garner a 19-14 delegate win in Mississippi. The actual split is going to be 20-13, which in effect is a two delegate gain for Obama.

The final popular vote tally:
Obama - 265,502
Clinton - 159,221

H/T to Kos and DU for pointing this out

Closing Arguments in Democratic Primary for MS-01

Democratic Chancery Clerk Travis Childers:


Democratic State Representative Steve Holland:


I'm happy that they've remained positive. Democrats shoot each other too often in our primaries.

New National Delegate Numbers and Polls

For your enjoyment:

Delegate numbers by CNN
Obama with 1,618 (1,411 pledged, 207 Superdelegates)
Clinton with 1,479 (1,242 pledged, 237 Superdelegates)

Polls via TPM
Pres '08 Mar 17 ------ Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 46%
USA Today/Gallup

Pres '08 Mar 17 ------ Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 47%
USA Today/Gallup

Pres '08 (D) Mar 17 ------ Clinton 47%, Obama 45%
Gallup

Pres '08 Mar 17 ------ McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 44%
Gallup

Pres '08 Mar 17 ------ Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%
Gallup

My Amateur Photos from the Big Week

Here are a few of my photos from last week.


Disclaimer: I have never owned a camera, and borrowed a digital from a friend for the week. The picture of the arms raised holding the "stand for change" signs is my favorite one.

New Gallup Polls

I promise I won't bore you with national polls on a regularly basis, but these polls add fuel to the Democratic Party "hope fire" we have going on Cotton Mouth. These are new Gallup polls released today.

Pres' 08 - Mar 13 ------ Obama 48%, Clinton 46%
Gallup
Pres' 08 - Mar 13 ------ Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%
Gallup
Pres' 08 - Mar 13 ------ Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%
Gallup


Very positive news if you are a Democrat. Both of our fantastic candidates are ahead, although well within the margin of error.

More Numbers And Statistics For Political Junkies

Sen. Obama won the night, with 61% of the vote--roughly 253,441 of the total 417,428 votes cast in the Democratic primary were for him.

Only 458,094 votes cast total for the Kerry/Edwards ticket in the general election in 2004. There were almost that many Democratic primary voters Tuesday night.

Let's go back to 2000. Al Gore got 89.62%, with only 79,408 votes of the total 114,979 cast. The 2008 primary turnout is a 263% increase over 2000.

In the 2004 Democratic primary for president, John Kerry won at 78.4%, gaining 59,815 of the 76,298 votes cast. Better candidates, better ideas, and competition in 2008 combined to create a 447% increase in Democratic presidential primary voters over 2004.

The "loser" of last night's contest, Senator Clinton, alone got almost as many votes last night (154,852) then were cast total for Democrats in the 2004 or 2008 primaries combined (155,706). Note the way 2000 and 2004 track each other (2000-79k, 2004-76k). The Democrats have "found" 300,000 new voters in the primary.

Let's look back just one year in statewide politics. In the 2007 general gubernatorial election, Haley Barbour beat John Arthur Eaves, 430,807 to 313,232, with a total vote cast of 744,039. There were almost as many Democratic primary votes cast last night as it took to win the governorship last year.

In the 2000 presidential primary--the last time there was one for Republicans, as Pres. Bush ran uncontested in 2004--the surging popularity of the former Texas governor brought him 101,042 votes, 87.88% of the total 114,979 votes cast.

Contrast that last night with Sen. John McCain, who won 111,953 votes last night, 79% of the 141,814 cast. This is an increase over those folks claiming to be Republican and voting for then-Gov. Bush. This is a 23% increase (with help from a couple of competitive Congressional primaries). Even with these (comparably modest) gains, the Republicans are performing to their historical scale.

Total votes cast last night in both presidential primaries: 559,242
Total votes cast in 2000 in both presidential primaries: 203, 581
A 175% increase.

This people came from somewhere . . . they've never voted before . . . and they voted Democratic.

Thanks to Cotton Mouth research for this analysis.

Obama Hal and Mal's Party

Around 8:00 tonight, after viewing the results from my couch for an hour, I wandered down to Hal and Mal's to the Obama results viewing party. There I ran into a lot of familiar faces from the week. Mike Meehan and Aaron (I am sorry I forget your last name), YOU GUYS ROCK. The joint was hopping with a large crowd filled with enthusiasm.

Former Governor Ray Mabus was in attendance. Mississippi state Senator Kenneth Jones from District 21, right her north of Jackson was also on hand. Senator Jones was one of the two men on stage with Senator Clinton in Canton for the JJH. He laughingly told me that he had been catching hell from his family, friends and constituency for his apparent backing of Senator Clinton. He was on stage for the Senator Clinton event due to his position as the Senator for Canton. We shared a good laugh about it.

I met a middle-aged black gentlemen from New Mexico name Jeffrey who used to be a college professor. He shared my pro-education views. He explained to me how the GOP had developed a stronghold in New Mexico, and how New Mexico's education rank had slipped into our league. He agreed with me that the GOP finds strength where poverty levels are high and education levels low. An uneducated electorate is vulnerable to the low-brow politics and deceit of the GOP.

I met a middle-aged white lady down from New Jersey. She just loved the culture and feel of Mississippi. We watched the returns for a while and I bored her to death with my delegate numbers breakdown. Somebody had to hear it, unfortunately for her. She was a good sport about it, but dissapeared like the wind, when I went to field a phone call.

I ran into a co-worker who is also a big Obama supporter. We joined together to cheer for the cameras when the live news broadcasts were run. I was always in the wrong place at the wrong time, and managed to share my ugly mug with the greater Jackson viewing area for the second time this week.

There was a black lady there who was passing out cards to garner support for a voter registration drive. She shared with me her disappointment with the 50% AA turnout, when they make up 65-70% of registered Democratic voters. I agree, but I mainly want tot see the overall total raised, and as of right now we had 400,000 show. I believe that is a record, but I can't find my numbers to verify. I will be in touch with her to see what she has going.

The crowd was a complete mixed bag of young, old, white, black, local, rural, and campaign workers from all over the US. Most of the campaign workers I met were enjoying the spirits, unwinding from an intense, sleep deprived run. Aaron was heading to North Carolina to start it over again, with the NC primary on May 5. Mike was heading home.

Tonight was a nice conclusion to the greatest week a Mississippi Democrat could have, especially if he is supporting Obama. I bought a great T-Shirt that on the back featured a "guilty" looking Chelsea Clinton and in large print, "Don't tell Mama, I voted for Obama".

The Big Day! Voting For President (Primary) In Mississippi

I voted in a trailer as I have in every election since Hurricane Katrina.

We voted on touch-screen machines manufactured by Diebold.  I had some difficulty because the screen wasn't very sensitive and I had to poke at it about a dozen times to move onto the next page.  The person who came to assist said that it had been acting up all day.

At 1 when I voted in my overwelmingly Republican precinct 264 folks had voted in the Democratic Primary and 181 folks had voted in the Republican Primary. 

That stands in strong contrast to 2007 state primaries when by the end of the day 802 folks had voted in the competitive Republican primary for Lt. Governor while 153 voted for Jamie Franks in the Democratic Primary.

I wonder if these patterns will be the same statewide.

Please leave you voting experience in the comments:

Week in Review Delegate Style

Numbers from a post by Kos.

Since last Tuesday the following super delegates have pledged:

Obama (12)
DNC Carol Fowler (SC), 3-4-08
Mary Long (GA), 3-4-08
Roy LaVerne Brooks (TX), 3-4-08
Rhine McLin (OH), 3-5-08
DNC Jane Kidd (GA), 3-5-08
DNC Darlena Williams-Burnett (IL), 3-5-08
DNC Connie Thurman (IN), 3-6-08
Rep. Nick Rahall (WV), 3-6-08
DNC Teresa Benitez-Thompson (NV), 3-6-08
DNC Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker (CA), 3-7-08
Rep. Bill Foster (IL), 3-9-08
DNC Mary Jo Neville (OH), 3-9-08

Clinton (4)
Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA), 3-6-08
DNC Mona Mohib (DC), 3-6-08
DNC Aleita Huguenin (CA), 3-7-08
DNC Mary Lou Winters (LA), 3-8-08


Primary Results by Delegates

Obama Clinton
OH 66 ---- 75
RI 8 ----- 13
VT 9 ----- 6
TX 99 ---- 94
WY 7 ----- 5
Total 189 193

Totals:

Obama ---- 201
Clinton ----197

Like Kos noted, a few more "bad" weeks for Obama like this and he can wrap up the nomination.

Yes we can!

New Hillary Ads in Mississippi

From a Hillary Clinton press release.

The Clinton campaign today announced it is launching its first two radio advertisements to air statewide in Mississippi.

The 60-second spots entitled "Invisible" and "Neighbor" highlight Hillary’s record of accomplishment on issues important to Mississippi families.

Listen to "Invisible" here.
Listen to "Neighbor" here.

Following are the scripts for the ads.

"Invisible Mississippi"

Radio :60

Announcer: Hillary Clinton has spent her life standing up for those others don’t see.

Hillary Clinton: "Too many Americans today feel as though they are invisible. If you are a child in a crumbling school...you are invisible to this President."

Announcer: She’s working to end the unfunded mandate on our schools known as No Child Left Behind... help every child live up to their god given potential

Hillary Clinton: If you’re a mother without health care, a father without a job, you’re invisible as well.

Announcer: Hillary expanded health clinics in rural Arkansas, won health coverage for 6 million children, [83,000 in Mississippi alone...]

Hillary Clinton: If your stuck on a rooftop during a hurricane, you’re invisible to this President even when you’re on CNN.

Announcer: And she’s voted consistently to fund the reconstruction of the Gulf Coast.

Hillary Clinton: Well, you are not invisible to me and you should never be invisible to the President of the United States.

Announcer: Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President.

Hillary Clinton: I’m Hillary Clinton, candidate for president, and I approved this message. ____________________

"Neighbor Mississippi"Radio :60

Announcer: They said she couldn't do it. They counted her out. But Hillary Clinton fought back. And she won big. Maybe that's why Barack Obama is running false attack ads against her now.
But Hillary thinks Mississippians deserve the truth about what she's done and what she'll do.
When Katrina and Rita struck, Hillary was one of the first people in the country to call for FEMA to be a separate agency, run by a professional, not by the [former] head of a horse association.
And she's stayed with it... fighting to stop giving bonuses to contractors who aren't doing their jobs.

Hillary spent 18 years as our neighbor in Arkansas. She worked to improve the schools and expand rural health clinics. In the White House and the Senate, she won health coverage for six million children, 83,000 right here in Mississippi

...and expanded access to health care for 12,000 members of the Mississippi National Guard.
You know Hillary will fight for Mississippi...because she already has.

Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President.

Hillary Clinton: I'm Hillary Clinton, candidate for President, and I approved this message.

Final ARG poll

The final poll from the American Research Group on the Mississippi Democratic Primary.

MS-Pres (D)Mar 10 ------ Obama 54%, Clinton 38%
ARG


Here are the older polls:

MS-Pres (D) Mar 8 ----- Obama 53%, Clinton 39%
Rasmussen

MS-Pres (D)Mar 7 ---- Obama 46%, Clinton 40%
InsiderAdvantage

MS-Pres (D)Mar 7 ---- Obama 58%, Clinton 34%
ARG


Change from last ARG poll
Obama -4
Clinton +4

I would say this is the Bill and Hillary bounce from their tour of state, Chelsea too. The Barack bounce will hit now that he has come to Mississippi.

New Rasmussen Mississippi Dem Primary Poll

New poll out for those who get into this type of stuff. By all means if you are supporter of either candidate, keep working hard. Every delegate counts and every vote matters.

MS-Pres (D) Mar 8 ----- Obama 53%, Clinton 39%
Rasmussen

Mississippi Delegate Math Explained

One of the great mysteries to the average voter is the way delegates are awarded after a primary has occurred. The popular vote and the delegate vote don't always match proportionately, why is this? Let's look and see how Mississippi's 33 Democratic pledged delegates are awarded.

Let's get some terminology down first.

Pledged Delegate: A delegate awarded based on the results of the Primary. Mississippi has 33.

Super Delegate: A delegate awarded to a state, but assigned to a party leader from that state. Big Wigs like Senator's, state party chairmen, Congressmen, etc... Mississippi has 7.

Delegates: The sum of both the pledged delegates and the super delegates. Mississippi has 40.

The state of Mississippi has 33 total pledged delegates attached to the results of Tuesday's primary. That total does not reflect the 7 super-delegates awarded to Mississippi. Of the seven, three have pledged for Senator Obama, three have remained undecided, and one delegate is yet to be determined. Mississippi has a total of 40 delegates but only 33 are tied to the results of Tuesday's primary.

The Democrats split the pledged delegate count (33) up in a 65-35 proportion, with 65% to be awarded at the congressional district level, while 35% will be split proportionately based on the overall statewide popular vote. Hang with me now, 35% of the total pledged delegates (33) is 11. These 11 delegates are divided proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. So say Obama gets 61% of the statewide popular vote, he would get 61% of 11, which is 7. Hillary would get 4 in this scenario.

The remaining 65% of the pledged delegates are divided up by Congressional District. All districts have 5, except for MS-2 which has 7, for a total of 22. The reason MS-2 has 7, is that the Democratic Party rewards districts that are heavily Dem. The delegates are awarded proportionately within each district based on the popular vote for that district. Say in MS-3 Obama gets 61% of the vote, he would win 3 pledged delegates to Senator Clinton's 2.

So with the 11 divided by the statewide popular vote, and the 22 divided by the popular vote within each Congressional district, we reach our total of 33 pledged delegates.


By Congressional District
MS-1: 5
MS-2: 7
MS-3: 5
MS-4: 5

11 delegates split proportionately based on popular vote
Total: 33

Any guesses to where this is headed?

Bill Clinton In Biloxi For Hillary Complete Video Of Event (Video Fixed)

New Obama Radio Ad Hits Airwaves in Mississippi

A new radio ad from the Obama campaign hit the airwaves in Mississippi. The ad starts with Obama speaking on his Christian faith, in an obvious attempt to thwart the effects of the venomous email about Obama being a secret Muslim, that has been making the rounds. Unfortunately, those emails can be effective in a state where the electorate suffer from poverty and ignorance. Email is the last unregulated means of mass spreading of lies left. No one wants regulation on email, but we must have common sense when reading these things or better yet just delete them. If it were really true it would be in the news, on the blogs, on CNN, or something.

The payload of the ad is delivered by our own former Governor and Obama endorser Ray Mabus. Mabus recalls the disappointing comments by Hillary in Iowa in relation to Mississippi and the fact that we have never had a female governor. In Iowa Hillary said,

"I was shocked when I learned Iowa and Mississippi have never elected a
woman governor, senator or member of Congress," Clinton told the Des Moines
Register in October. "There has got to be something at work here. How can Iowa
be ranked with Mississippi? That's not the quality. That's not the
communitarianism, that's not the openness I see in Iowa."

I remember when she said this, and thinking that it could come back to haunt her. Little did she know that her attempt to kiss ass in Iowa by throwing Mississippi under the bus would matter. Iowa was the first state to hold a caucus or primary as you well know. We are like the 40th or so state to hold their primary or caucus. She disparaged Mississippi because she had no idea the nomination would still be in question when Mississippians cast our ballots. At that point in the election cycle, you can't say she was going to lose Mississippi anyway, since she was still polling very high with the AA community. It was not until his Iowa victory and strong showings in NH and Vermont, that he was able to wrest the AA vote from the Clinton's.

I really like Hillary Clinton* (Clinton Event In Hattiesburg)

Hillary Clinton is amazing to see in person.

I've heard that her natural charisma can fill a room, though doesn't seem to translate often onto television.

I'm dog tired, but I'll get all the pictures and video from this morning and yesterday up tonight.


* I'm also a really big fan of Obama

On the Scene with Big Dog in Tupelo

I will be on the scene in Tupelo tomorrow to see the former President Clinton speak at the Tupelo Furniture Market. Not to mention, we are going to eat some good ole fried catfish. That will be two nights in a row for me, but what do I expect I am on a Clinton tour through Mississippi. My brain has run wild with fantasy visions of the Big Dog knocking back a cold one and slaying some catfish while talking to me. I can hear his voice say, "Hey Bubba, pass me a few of them hush puppies and little more slaw, will ya?"

I will post Friday night post-event if possible. My folks live in the stone age, or at least last century when it comes to technology.

Senator Clinton at the JJH

I was going to title this, "The Insult 37 State Strategy Comes to Canton", but I opted on taking it easy on our Hillary supporters here.

Wow, what an exciting week we are having in my home state. Democrats here are outorganized, outfinanced and outnumbered. Starving for relevance, we have found it in the Democratic Primary here on Tuesday. There is real palpable excitement in the air. I am not sure if we are even outnumbered anymore, by worst measures we are at least in the fight.

Tonight, Thursday the 6th, we had Hillary speaking at the Jefferson Jackson Hamer Dinner in Canton, Mississippi at 7:30. At 5:30 I attended a Barack Obama visiblity rally at the front entrance of the building where the Clinton event occured. Tommorow night I am driving 3 hours north to my real hometown to see the Big Dog speak at a fish fry. Monday my man Barack Obama brings his message of change and hope to the Magnolia State. What a week for a Dem political junkie...


We arrive at the Canton Multi-Purpose Equine Center around 6:00 in time for the Obama rally which was only a hundred or so strong, but people came and went and I did arrive late. There was a small but vocal Clinton contingent there featuring a lady with a banjo belting Hillary cheers. We were laughing with the Sherrif's Officer about how she would be the one photo from the event with her banjo, making us look like a scene from Deliverence. I will give her credit for spunk and gall, she had both and in large measures.

Tickets were $125 for a plate and a seat or $50 for a seat in the bleachers. We elected to buy the dinner plan, since we both had come straight from work. Inside the crowd numbered well into the hundreds. It was a Mississippi melting pot as the Democratic Party is, with rich, poor, black, white, straight, gay, professional, working man you name it.

My friend and I hit the cash bar for a round or two and took our assigned seat. We had a great table. Sitting across from us were two black guys Greg and ???. We enjoyed a great conversation about politics for about a half hour before dinner was serverd. It was beautiful to see all the diversity sitting together talking and breaking bread. For vittles we had a choice of fried catfish, hush puppies, fries, cole slaw,and baked beans. The other choice was BBQ and fixins. We opted for the catfish.

In line I met a 78 year old man who was from Meridian and knew my dad, a longtime Mississippi Dem. I also met a man who was on his local school board. My father has served on school boards before, my sister teaches, and I work in IT for a school district, so that meant a lot to me. I also met some nice ladies from the coast in line for our fish.

I must say that the Obama crown came in force, with me included. I would venture to say the numbers were very close, if not an advantgae for Obama. While the event was pretty much a draw racially, there were a LOT more whites with Obama stickers than AA's with Clinton stickers. Most of all of the black folks I talked to had no hard feelings towards Hillary, but more of an excitement for their candidate. The look in some of their eyes, especially the really old ones, considering what they had seen and endured in their lifetimes, was something to behold.

Hillary took the stage around 8:30 or so. She did fine considering the poor acoustics in the metal building. She did sound tired, and who can blame her. As usual her substance was solid. She made no attacks at her opponent, but spoke more of her vision as it related to Mississippi. I agreed with 95% of everything she said. She did spend the first 5 minutes or so speaking on civil rights type talk that I have not heard in other stump speeches, but I may be wrong. But that would make sense considering the state, no foul either way. She wrapped up around 9:00.

I said I agreed with 95% of what she said. Here is the other 5%. She said she supported expanding drilling in the Gulf so we could benefit from our resources. Uh, NO!! Later she reiterated a right wing talking point that we gave the Iraqi people the ultimate gift, the gift of freedom. I wanted to puke, freedom via clusterbomb.

All in all it was a great event, and two things I drew out of it were that we are large in numbers this cycle and that we are fired up. But wait until Obama gets here Monday. It will be like the Beatles coming to America. The excitement is unreal in both the white and black communities, but the excitement in the black community for Obama is off the charts.

Obama Confirms Two Stops In Mississippi

The Obama campaign has confirmed that he intends to make stops in Jackson and Columbus on Monday.

Specifics will follow.