Sen. Obama won the night, with 61% of the vote--roughly 253,441 of the total 417,428 votes cast in the Democratic primary were for him.
Only 458,094 votes cast total for the Kerry/Edwards ticket in the general election in 2004. There were almost that many Democratic primary voters Tuesday night.
Let's go back to 2000. Al Gore got 89.62%, with only 79,408 votes of the total 114,979 cast. The 2008 primary turnout is a 263% increase over 2000.
In the 2004 Democratic primary for president, John Kerry won at 78.4%, gaining 59,815 of the 76,298 votes cast. Better candidates, better ideas, and competition in 2008 combined to create a 447% increase in Democratic presidential primary voters over 2004.
The "loser" of last night's contest, Senator Clinton, alone got almost as many votes last night (154,852) then were cast total for Democrats in the 2004 or 2008 primaries combined (155,706). Note the way 2000 and 2004 track each other (2000-79k, 2004-76k). The Democrats have "found" 300,000 new voters in the primary.
Let's look back just one year in statewide politics. In the 2007 general gubernatorial election, Haley Barbour beat John Arthur Eaves, 430,807 to 313,232, with a total vote cast of 744,039. There were almost as many Democratic primary votes cast last night as it took to win the governorship last year.
In the 2000 presidential primary--the last time there was one for Republicans, as Pres. Bush ran uncontested in 2004--the surging popularity of the former Texas governor brought him 101,042 votes, 87.88% of the total 114,979 votes cast.
Contrast that last night with Sen. John McCain, who won 111,953 votes last night, 79% of the 141,814 cast. This is an increase over those folks claiming to be Republican and voting for then-Gov. Bush. This is a 23% increase (with help from a couple of competitive Congressional primaries). Even with these (comparably modest) gains, the Republicans are performing to their historical scale.
Total votes cast last night in both presidential primaries: 559,242
Total votes cast in 2000 in both presidential primaries: 203, 581
A 175% increase.
This people came from somewhere . . . they've never voted before . . . and they voted Democratic.
Thanks to Cotton Mouth research for this analysis.
1988 was the only previous Democratic primary with a truly competitive race. There were more than 357,000 votes, though only 9 percent were for the eventual nominee.
ReplyDeleteJackson...........157,530.......44%
Gore..............120,166.......34
Dukakis............31,318........9
Gephardt...........19,683........6
Hart...............13,790........4
Uncommitted.........9,474........3
Babbitt.............2,137........1
Simon...............2,123........1
LaRouche............1,285........0
Delegates:
Jackson 24, Gore 15, Dukakis 1
Total votes cast last night in both presidential primaries: 559,242
ReplyDeleteTotal votes cast in 2000 in both presidential primaries: 203, 581
A 175% increase.
More good news, unless my math skills are failing me that is 275% increase in voter turnout. Nothing like eight years of Bush to charge up the electorate.
Great Post. I am a numbers guy, so this was right down central for me.
Some 12% of the voters in the Democratic primary were Republicans, 3/4 of whom voted for Clinton. This provides more ammunition for the Mississippi Democrats in their lawsuit against our primary election law, which is now in the 5th Circuit in New Orleans.
ReplyDeleteIf the Democrats ultimately win the suit-- as I believe they will-- they will be able to block Republicans from Democratic primaries.
The Democrats say that they will invite independents into their primaries, while the Republicans say they will keep GOP primaries open to all voters.
Free Citizen
Steve, I personally don't believe that 12% of the voters in the primary were Republicans, especially because the intensely charged 3rd District race in the traditionally Republican counties keep that team voting R.
ReplyDeleteFurther, you can compare Republican turn-out, and they were actually doing good themselves, getting many more folks out than normal (again, a result of the intense 3rd race).
I am working on some numbers to disprove this talking point of the Republican party. Not the least of which is--even if you subtracted all of the votes for Sen. Clinton, you still see an amazing turnout for the Dems.
I got the 12% figure from the exit polls of both CNN and CBS. CNN said that 17% of the Democratic primary voters were self-described independents, and some of those must have really been Republicans as well.
ReplyDeleteI cited the 12% figure strictly in relation to the Mississippi Democrats' lawsuit against our primary election law. This will likely be the last Dem presidential primary in which Republicans will be able to cross over.
It was definitely a big turnout in the Dem primary. Notably, Shawn O'Hara, in losing the Dem Senate primary nearly 2 to 1, got more votes than John McCain did in winning the GOP presidential primary.
Guess we'll have to wait a while longer for Shawn to install snow cone stands at rest stops.