One of the great mysteries to the average voter is the way delegates are awarded after a primary has occurred. The popular vote and the delegate vote don't always match proportionately, why is this? Let's look and see how Mississippi's 33 Democratic pledged delegates are awarded.
Let's get some terminology down first.
Pledged Delegate: A delegate awarded based on the results of the Primary. Mississippi has 33.
Super Delegate: A delegate awarded to a state, but assigned to a party leader from that state. Big Wigs like Senator's, state party chairmen, Congressmen, etc... Mississippi has 7.
Delegates: The sum of both the pledged delegates and the super delegates. Mississippi has 40.
The state of Mississippi has 33 total pledged delegates attached to the results of Tuesday's primary. That total does not reflect the 7 super-delegates awarded to Mississippi. Of the seven, three have pledged for Senator Obama, three have remained undecided, and one delegate is yet to be determined. Mississippi has a total of 40 delegates but only 33 are tied to the results of Tuesday's primary.
The Democrats split the pledged delegate count (33) up in a 65-35 proportion, with 65% to be awarded at the congressional district level, while 35% will be split proportionately based on the overall statewide popular vote. Hang with me now, 35% of the total pledged delegates (33) is 11. These 11 delegates are divided proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. So say Obama gets 61% of the statewide popular vote, he would get 61% of 11, which is 7. Hillary would get 4 in this scenario.
The remaining 65% of the pledged delegates are divided up by Congressional District. All districts have 5, except for MS-2 which has 7, for a total of 22. The reason MS-2 has 7, is that the Democratic Party rewards districts that are heavily Dem. The delegates are awarded proportionately within each district based on the popular vote for that district. Say in MS-3 Obama gets 61% of the vote, he would win 3 pledged delegates to Senator Clinton's 2.
So with the 11 divided by the statewide popular vote, and the 22 divided by the popular vote within each Congressional district, we reach our total of 33 pledged delegates.
By Congressional District
MS-1: 5
MS-2: 7
MS-3: 5
MS-4: 5
11 delegates split proportionately based on popular vote
Total: 33
Any guesses to where this is headed?
My prediction:
ReplyDelete1st CD 3/2 Clinton
2nd CD 5/2 Obama
3rd CD 3/2 Obama
4th CD 3/2 Clinton
So 12/10 for Obama on CD Delegates
The other 11 are 7 at-large and 4 pledged PLEOs (party leaders & elected officials) apportioned separately by the statewide vote
4/3 Obama for at-large;
2/2 for PLEO
Total Obama 18 Clinton 15
I am going:
ReplyDeletepopular:
Obama 62%
Clinton 38%
Based on Congressional District
MS-1 3/2 Clinton
MS-2 6/1 Obama
MS-3 3/2 Obama
MS-4 3/2 Obama
Based on Popular Vote:
Obama 7
Clinton 4
Total:
Obama 21
Clinton 12
and yes I know 6/1 requires over 80% Obama, but I think that is possible in the Delta. I think Jackson is 3/2 Obama lock and not moving off it. The swing will come from MS-1 (3/2 Obama or 3/2 Clinton), MS-2 (6/1 Obama or 5/2 Obama), and MS-4 (3/2 Obama or 3/2 Clinton). The pop will either come to 6-5 or 7-4. So that leaves it in a range between 18-15 Obama and 21-12 Obama.
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