Democratic:
Ronnie Shows - He was a Congressman until he was redistricted. If he decides to run as many expect Democrats will clear the field for him. Hopefully such a campaign would be better run than his last one.
Joe Warren - He is the State House Democratic Caucus Chair and would consider running if Shows doesn't.
Ronnie Musgrove - He considered running for something this time around (2007) but decided against it after having his campaign fund do polling. In more favorable conditions he might make the plunge. You know he wants it.
Republican:
NOT TUCK - She issued a press release saying that she is not interested.
Charlie Ross - With the center of the district including several powerhouse Republican counties he might be tempted to join and has a professional staff and name recognition from his failed race for the Republican nomination for Lt. Governor.
Jeffery Rupp - Because Will Bardwell says so. I don't think he'd have a chance in the GOP primary against either of these two.
Updated: Jim Perry - 'Perry is the policy director for Haley Barbour and the former legislative director to Congressman Roger Wicker (R-Citizens Council). Perry also ran the policy shop on Barbour's 2003 gubernatorial campaign. In January 2006, The Hotline wrote of Perry that "GOPers are sure that 'at some point, he'll run for something.'"' - Will Bardwell
Overall what is amazing is that a Democrat can clearly win in this district. There are solid Democratic choices and the Republican brand has suffered a well deserved beating these last few years. George Bush is polling in the 40s even in all the white parts of the county and voters will be thinking of him and his war when they go to vote. Think '06 can't happen again? Voters' opinions haven't changed much since then and Republicans will lose more seats in 2008. Perhaps MS-03 can be among that number.
Updated 8/17/07 to reflect the Tuck Anouncement
While my representative to Congress Shows had, in my opinion, one of the most responsive congressional offices I've ever encountered.
ReplyDeleteIf he could have stood up like Gene Taylor and took the position that he wouldn't vote for Dick Gephardt for Speaker I think that race vs Pickering could have gone to the wire.
I agree that a Democrat can win but the District favors Republicans. I'd be willing to bet you there are more Republicans in that district now than when it was last re-mapped.
I'd vote for Tuck or Shows but I just don't know which if they were head-to-head. Shows over any Republican other than Tuck and Tuck over any other than Shows.
If Musgrove is going to still claim Batesville as home then he's not in the district. Ronnie will also still have to face the questions about his fling with Robin Costa while in office.
Wow, I move to Starkville and I land in the middle of a open political seat in the House in 2008.
ReplyDeleteCould not have asked for more! :)
I come from the land of BlueNC.com . I have to say this is very exciting. It reminds me of the Larry Kissell race (NC-08) last year. It looks like we have the potential to acheive something very similar here in the 3rd district. Except we're not going up against an incumbent anymore.
I look forward to staying up to date on progressive politics in MS through Cotton Mouth!
Thanks nick d for your readership. BlueNC does a good job covering North Carolina, I hope to do at least as good of a job here. :)
ReplyDeleteAll I know is that the Mississippi State University forces are angling hard to reclaim this seat.
ReplyDeleteTuck is the overwhelming favorite with Whit Hughes a close second.
PLEASE, not another conservative white guy! Why vote for them when you can have the real thing with a Republican. This has been and will continue to be a loosing proposition in this district.
ReplyDeleteWe need a black female who's charismatic and progressive. This district is 40% black, and I think blacks would really turn out for a good black candidate. (Any ideas?) Add the liberal and progressive whites and you've got a win.
Casey Ann, you are in the 3rd District!
ReplyDeleteDo you have any ideas for a progressive candidate?
Here's a possibility: Pickering resigns. Haley appoints Eric Clark.
ReplyDeleteEmily, under that idea would Eric Clark switch parties?
ReplyDeleteThe only way a Democrat wins is if the Republicans have a divisive primary full of personal attacks while a good Democratic candidate builds a populist "I will represent the district not party or special interests" campaign.
ReplyDeleteno conservative white democrats? I got a newsflash for you, they are the only one's keeping the democratic party afloat in Mississippi. If democrat starts to mean "black" and "republican" means white, the state democratic party is finished. We must have a coalition to win.
ReplyDeleteA progress black female would lose 65-35, no contest.
Eric Clark should run! He could actually win as a D in the 3rd!
Mississippi & 3rd Congressional District needs a newer, fresher face next term. How about 1 of the young guys who had the guts to run statewide in the primaries? Or how about Hunter Dawkins - he'll just become 25 yrs old in 2008, with Master's Degree in Public Policy!
ReplyDeleteTo Emily:
ReplyDeleteYour suggestion that Governor Barbour would appoint a Democrat Eric Clark to a U.S. House seat would not only be shocking, it would be unconstitutional: the Constitution requires that members of the House be replaced only by an election held in the congressional district of the former representative. (Article I, Section II, Clause 4)
Don't ya'll know any females? Geez! We are over 50% of the voting population, you know.
ReplyDeleteNews Flash to Anonymous. I disagree that white conservative males are keeping the Democratic Party alive. They are not really Democrats, and they drag us down. Look at the 2006 elections across the country. Real Democrats won in Republican Districts all over the country. But it doesn't happen when the candidate is really a Republican but happens to have a D after his name.
ReplyDeleteThere are lots of progressive Democrats in this state - white and black - although we may not agree on everything - especially social issues. Give us a good populist candidate, and we'll show up. Give us a well run campaign, and we'll work. But give us another DINO, and we might be busy that day.
A liberal Democrat will not win in the 3rd district. Rankin County votes alone would play a big factor in that. I am not even sure a conservative Democrat can win in the district. Just too many hard core Republican voters there.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the correction, bo. Last year when rumors first circulated about a Pickering departure, some folks who frequent the state capitol and witness firsthand the shenanigans therein were whispering that the resignation would set off a cascade of resignations and appointments by Barbour beginning with the appointment of Tuck to Pickering's seat. These rumors were I think fueled by then-recent Democratic defections (Walley's resignation, etc.). If a Senate seat is vacated, the Governor appoints the successor, right?
ReplyDeleteAs far as Barber appointing a Dem, it would only be shocking if that Dem remained one. There are some folks who wonder if Clark would not move to the Republican column given enough incentive and if in fact his decision to not seek another term as SoS was a precursor to that decision.
I do not know all of the reasons that more progressive Dems have been unhappy with Clark. For myself, I have been dismayed by his initial and continued stubborness about the possible security vulnerabilities in the Diebold voting machines. He saw the voter verified paper trail as simply a pacifier so folks would feel more comfortable with the machines. I sat in on one of the dog and pony shows where the SoS staffers were trying to convince the counties to buy into the mass purchase and listened with some incredulity when a prominent staffer told the crowd that these machines cannot be hacked. It seemed like every word that was spoken came from the Diebold marketing department.
I had heard good things about Clark in earlier years and really expected him to be more proactive in maintaining the security and sanctity of the ballot box. I would like to see someone with a Mike Moore or a Dick Molpus attitude working to improve our elections.