District 1 Race Gets More National Press

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Tuesday, March 15, 2008

Hitting Home

In a worrisome sign for the NRCC, GOPers announced that the cmte is airing TV ads to hold MS-01, a seat in firmly anchored in its Southern base. It joins LA-06 in getting a DC helping hand.
-- But even though there's a 4/22 non-partisan special, a 5/13 runoff between Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R) appears likely. The NRCC wants to define Childers, who's been tattooed with the "conservative" label, before Dems do. Still, it's interesting that the cmte is spending money now, when the two-way race is still a month away.
-- But the race appears to be the real deal. It was easy to dismiss the high Dem turnout in the primary, saying it was being boosted by the WH vote. But no such asterick can be attached to the runoff, which saw the same trends. The NRCC ad doesn't mention "Democrat" once. Is that a sign it's no longer a bad word, even in this CD? If so, that's a problem for GOPers.
-- This is not a position the NRCC expected to be in, and is a bad sign for the fall. If the NRCC spends resources in Nov. defending anything in the South, it'll be a bad year.

CQ Politics:

The conservative leanings and usual Republican voting tendencies in northern Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District would appear to give a strong advantage to front-running GOP candidate Greg Davis in his bid for Congress.

Yet Democrats insist that divisions within the district’s Republican ranks that surfaced during a recent primary campaign — and the emergence of Travis Childers, a local official with a conservative profile, as the leading Democratic candidate — gives them a shot at the seat that seven-term Republican incumbent Roger Wicker vacated in December after his appointment to the U.S. Senate.

Some Mississippi political analysts say the Democrats’ optimism may not be misplaced. “I even get some raised eyebrows around here when I say a Democrat can win in the 1st District,” said Marty Wiseman, a well-known authority on Mississippi politics who directs the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University. “But it’s not unreasonable to say it’s too close to call.”

CQ Politics is changing its rating of the race to Leans Republican from Safe Republican. The new rating reflects the competitive nature of the race, but identifies Davis as the candidate who holds an edge.