New poll ignites Hope for Change in Mississippi

Wow is all I can say after analyzing the crosstabs from the Research 2000 poll. Based on the results, Research 2000 has produced the more McCain friendly numbers in their two polls opposed to the two most recent Rasmussen polls of Mississippi. Rasmussen scored it a six point lead for McCain in both their May and June polls. Research 2000 had a 15 point McCain lead in May. Now they show a 9 point McCain lead in July.

What gets you excited if you are believer in Hope are the crosstabs of the most recent Research 2000 poll. This race is tighter than you think. Let me show you why.

First let's look at the sample. Research 2000 surveyed 600 Mississippians from July 21-23. Here is the breakdown of those 600 polled. Thanks to Dail Kos for not only paying for the poll, but for the data as well.

Sample Figures:
Men ----- 49%
Women -- 51%

Dem -- 40%
Rep -- 45%
Ind -- 15%

White -- 63%
Black -- 37%

18-29 -- 18%
30-44 -- 31%
45-59 -- 32%
60+ ---- 19%

Delta/Jack -- 37%
NE --------- 27%
SE ---------- 36%

Main Result:
McCain -- 51%
Obama -- 42%

Here is where it gets interesting.

White vote:
Obama ----- 19%
McCain ----- 78%
Undecided -- 3%

Remember 20% is the number of white voters we need to reach to have a big-time shot in this race as outlined in this post. Could Obama win Mississippi? For reference Kerry won only 14% of the white vote. Obama already outpolls Kerry in the white vote.

Black vote:
Obama ----- 81%
McCain ----- 4%
Undecided -- 15%

Fifteen percent undecided. Well let me decide that for them. Kerry won 90% of the black vote in Mississippi. Obama should get at least 94% based on my numbers. Let's see what the effect if applying the undecided black vote does to our numbers.

With the Black vote breaking a conservative 94-6:

Obama --- 47%
McCain --- 50%

Now let's make it 95-5, a reasonable number.

Obama --- 47%
McCain --- 49%

If we can reach 20% on the white vote for Obama, this thing is winnable. If we can raise the white vote for Obama to closer to 25% this thing looks solid. If we raise the black vote from 37% overall to 40% of the total vote, a feat entirely possible with the local disinterest in John McCain, we win period. The table favors the Republicans, but for the first time in my lifetime I can see openings to victory. Hope is alive and well in Democratic Mississippi.