Roger Wicker is benefiting from his enormous cash advantage. He has been able to run a series of ads in all parts of the state, in effect to introduce the north Mississippi congressman to the rest of the state. Ronnie Musgrove has yet to really fire his guns, besides a DSCC ad.
A new poll is out today from Rasmussen, one of the best polling firms out there. In parentheses is last months result from Rasmussen.
Ronnie Musgrove -- 42% (47)
Roger Wicker ------- 48% (48)
MoE 4%
The lead grows to 52-43 when leaner's are included.
There is one major flaw with this poll. Being that this is a special election, there will be no reference to party on the ballot. The candidates will NOT be identified as Republican or Democratic in the polling booth. This poll erroneously identifies their parties, which has to be worth a few points to Roger Wicker.
This should be a call to arms for us Democrats. The first of the month will be here in a couple of days. Set aside some money to send to the Musgrove campaign. We cannot afford to sit around and wait for help.
That's a very valid point about party ID not being on the actual ballot. My expectation is that the Rasmussen Poll actually represents generic party ID in the state. Republicans essentially have a built-in 10 pt. advantage, but Musgrove's name recognition will come in handy and I expect this to become competitive if Musgrove can raise funds.
ReplyDeleteTrue.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see if record turnout of young people and minorities can overcome that 10 point gap.
Let us also notice that Wicker did not gain support. I would say that Wicker's televison boananza has moved some Musgrove leaners into the undecided category. This race is still wide open.
ReplyDeleteThe crosstabs of the Research 2000 poll had Musgrove with 26% of the white vote. If he gets that in Novemeber, he wins period.
Sorry folks. No R's and D's in this survey. Click the link in the article at the bottom. The questions are written out with just names; no parties. Do you really think Musgrove would only be polling 82% of African Americans if he had "D" listed by his name?
ReplyDeleteIf the 2008 Election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for Republican Roger Wicker or Democrat Ronnie Musgrove?
ReplyDeleteTop Lines
I just read an article about the Republicans blocking a bill that would have increased funding for our troops. The bill would have provided a pay raise, more money to protect against IED's, and more money to provide health care. Both Wicker and Cochran voted against it. Why? Because they want more money for big oil. This needs to be focused on. Let's get this in ALL of the papers and media outlets in the state.
ReplyDeleteDave, if you have a link to that add it OR you can write a post on it for us.
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