Delegate Totals*:
MS-1: 3-2 Clinton
MS-2: 5-2 Obama
MS-3: 3-2 Obama
MS-4: 3-2 Obama
Statewide: 6-5 Obama
Total: 19-14 Obama
*These numbers are not set in stone or official yet (I do believe).
Clarion Ledger:
Mississippi - Summary Vote Results
March 12, 2008 - 02:07PM ET (i) = incumbent = winner = runoff
President - Dem Primary
1909 of 1912 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Obama, Barack Dem 253,441 61%
Clinton, Hillary Dem 154,852 37%
Edwards, John Dem 3,841 1%
Biden, Joe Dem 1,768 0%
Richardson, Bill Dem 1,339 0%
Kucinich, Dennis Dem 891 0%
Dodd, Chris Dem 718 0%
Gravel, Mike Dem 578 0%
President - GOP Primary
1894 of 1912 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name Party Votes Vote %
McCain, John GOP 111,953 79%
Huckabee, Mike GOP 17,676 12%
Paul, Ron GOP 5,487 4%
Romney, Mitt GOP 2,154 2%
Thompson, Fred GOP 2,128 2%
Giuliani, Rudy GOP 935 1%
Keyes, Alan GOP 833 1%
Hunter, Duncan GOP 407 0%
Tancredo, Tom GOP 241 0%
Yes. Even though he wasn't running John Edwards came close to tying the #2 Republican in the race. Ron Paul still isn't going anywhere folks.
You have many different people posting. Maybe you should ask each of them to post a bio, if they are willing. Just a friendly suggestion.
ReplyDeletePoint noted. How do you like mine?
ReplyDeleteCasey Ann has one up. Jake, Hiram, and Jeff have not (as far as I know).
What's your bio?
If you really want to know, I'll introduce myself sometime. Just a former political junky that now focuses on paying his bills.
ReplyDeleteHate to brag but after looking at it the numbers harder I posted this on Kos Tuesday afternoon.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/11/18952/8638/461/474496
Fearless Prognostications:
I am going:
Popular:
Obama 62%
Clinton 38%
Based on Congressional District
MS-1 3/2 Clinton
MS-2 5/2 Obama
MS-3 3/2 Obama
MS-4 3/2 Obama
Based on Popular Vote:
Obama 6
Clinton 5
Total:
Obama 19
Clinton 14
And yes I know 5/2 requires over 64% of the vote for Obama, but I think that is possible in the Delta. I think MS-3 is 3/2 Obama lock and not moving off it. The swing will come from MS-1 (3/2 Obama or 3/2 Clinton), MS-2 (6/1 Obama or 5/2 Obama), and MS-4 (3/2 Obama or 3/2 Clinton). The pop will either come to 6-5 or 7-4. So that leaves it in a range between 18-15 Obama and 21-12 Obama. Remember this is MY best guess, and nothing more.
The one thing I had wrong in my article and it was minor had to do with how the 11 statewide delegates were split. Instead of the whole total of 11 being spilt at one time they are divided in to two goups, one of 4 and one of 7. These two groups of delegates are awarded based on the overall popular vote. Under this scenario 62% only yields a 6-5 advantage (4-3, 2-2).
ReplyDeleteJeff, How many different predictions did you make?
ReplyDeleteOn this blog you predicted 21-12 with 6-1 in the 2nd and 7-4 at-large.
I predicted 18-15. I missed on the 4th District where Obama won with 50.8%.
Two, the one on here and then I changed it a little after I learned about the delegate split of the 11 that I had wrong in my article, see my comment above. That made a huge difference. Also I made a chart showing what the cutoff was for each delegate split, after I posted my first guess with you.
ReplyDeleteI don't matter anyway, I just got a kick out of getting the districts right.
I am still trying to cool my jets after the last week. I took yeterday off, but I will post agin tonight and a lot next week, being spring break for me.
Great Job Jeff!
ReplyDeleteI don't think I made any public predictions other than an obvious overall win by Obama.