13% of those that voted in the MS Democratic primary today were Republicans and they went for Hillary Clinton by a huge margin of 77-23%. Among independents who voted in the Democratic primary today, Clinton loses only by a slight 48-51% margin. These results represent a phenomenal improvement for Clinton among these groups as compared to her overall pre-March 4 results when she lost among Republicans 29-64% and among Independents 36-56%
3 Possibilities Why:
1. Republicans in Mississippi suddenly love Hillary Clinton (most unlikely)
2. Republicans were motivated to vote for the weaker general election candidate
3. Racists who identify as Republicans (i.e. not all Republicans are racist or vica versa) came out to vote against a black man
What do you think explains it?
(Update: Welcome Politico Readers Ben Smith At Politico)
John,
ReplyDeleteI voted for Hillary today in Rankin county of all places eventhough we had a Congressional primary. I did it for a couple reasons- mainly to keep things in the Dem primary mixed up eventhough I knew Obama would win. I would also say your 2nd point is true- Clinton is the weaker candidate.
I also had Ike Brown and company who have sued to close their primary so I wanted to stick it to them as best I could- of course Obama still won so it didn't work too well.
Stick it to them by proving their point?
ReplyDeleteThanks for commenting though! It's good to get y'all's view.
Except that it is ridiculous to believe that Hillary is the weaker general election candidate. Obama's votes are almost all partisan Democrats and Green Party type independents. They are not in play for the Republicans. Hillary is drawing blue collar and rural voters who could vote Democratic if they are focused on economic issues, health care, etc., but can we wedged away by Republicans over God, gays, guns, abortion, amnesty, etc. Obama did not even ask for those Southern populist votes in Mississippi and a Democrat cannot compete without them. He went to the W and JSU to get out the vote he already had rather than to persuadable areas. He is running a 60% primary strategy that is a 40% general election strategy.
ReplyDeleteShe didn't even bother to show up to some smaller "red" states.
ReplyDeleteThey fought here, because they had to show the media and their donors that they were fighting, not because they wanted to.
If she wins the nomination I don't suspect she'll return to fight for or persuade those voters.
Ah Researcher, I guess that is why Senator Obama polls significantly higher than Senator Clinton against McCain. His "40%" is somehow stroger than her support, explain?
ReplyDeleteNational polls always love the new guy, but at this point that includes a lot of superficial impression, not firm support.
ReplyDeleteGary Hart, Dukakis, Paul Tsongas, Howard Dean all looked great in national polls at one time. Ross Perot led the national polls at one time in 1992.
You have to look at it realistically state by state. Obama's returns are not much different from previous Democrats who were the heroes of liberal enclaves and young idealists, except that he also is getting a larger than normal turnout of African Americans for primaries. In the end he is headed for only a slightly better general election voter profile than Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry.
Polls love the new guy? Is that even logic? Polls showed that Obama was going to win the MS primary, and he did. So what does that mean? Are you saying there is a bias in people being polled that makes them choose the "new guy" but vote for someone else later? I dunno...
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Howard Dean. Let us give a big shout-out to to the "50 state strategy" which has made Dean an official genious. Thanks for moving us past the conventional wisdom that you don't waste money in a state like MS.
I love me some Howard Dean!
ReplyDeleteMy republican relatives voted for clinton in mississippi yesterday because they know that the democrates might win the general and if so, they much prefer Clinton to Obama. I don't know what is so tricky about that except that it is more of a negative spin to assign other motives to their vote for Clinton. Many of my relatives did so simply because, thougg they prefer McCain, she is their second choice.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the insight kw!
ReplyDeleteThe elephant in the room is that some good Republicans are voting for Hilary because they know she'll be the easiest to beat in the general.
ReplyDelete