First they sent staff to Mississippi a little over a week ago.
Now they have an office in Jackson and plans to open short term offices across the state (donated space for about a week).
They've had organizational meetings in Jackson, Starkville, Hattiesburg and Biloxi. By the reports I received from folks at these meetings all had huge turnout (over 100 with no candidate present).
He's got a radio ad on that several folks have told me about and this TV ad is on broadcast networks around the state:
There is still no sign of a Clinton campaign presence.
Yes We Can.
I think he'll win over Clinton in Mississippi, but it is hard to imagine our state still not falling to McCain regardless of which Democrat wins. Still, I'm hoping Obama can do so.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Huckabee's "major in miracles" will help out Obama. ;)
ReplyDeleteDidn't you get the memo? People like us (I live in SC) in Red-states with large black populations don't count.
ReplyDeleteObama carrying Mississippi would rock.
ReplyDeleteIf we do the math... Let's assume for the sake of argument that he pulls 90% of black voters, which is not realistic for a national Democrat running in Mississippi. That's 90% of 37%, or 33% of the vote.
Which means that in order to win, he needs 17% + 1. That's about one-quarter of white votes.
Bush won 57.62% here in 2000. That's five points less than Jim Hood's margin of reelection, and several points less than Haley Barbour's.
If Obama is riding a Reagan-like landslide (and by November he may be), then the possibility of carrying Mississippi is very real. If it's a closer race, then he probably won't but there's still a realistic chance that McCain will win the state with less than 55%.
Black turnout could also be key. If white evangelicals are meh about McCain and there's no Southerner on the ticket, then black voters may make up more than 37% of the vote. If it starts looking like 40 to 45% of votes come from black Mississippians, then Obama could very well end up with a win.
Another possible factor: Third-party candidacies. Bloomberg and Paul aren't running, Nader has never been a factor in Mississippi, but McCain is unpopular enough among some social conservatives that the possibility of a more viable than usual Constitution Party candidate is there. If this candidate pulls 5 to 10% of the vote, that could give Obama the state.
So there are certainly scenarios where Obama can become the first Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to carry Mississippi. If I were him I wouldn't focus my energies here, because it's a long shot and we don't have many electoral votes anyway...but yes, we can.
I'm talking there about the general election, of course. It's a given that he'll carry Mississippi in next week's primary, and I predict he'll do so by greater than 15% margin. :o)
ReplyDelete"is not realistic for a national Democrat" --> "is not unrealistic for a national Democrat." I need sleep.
ReplyDelete"Me and my Momma are for Barack Obama."
ReplyDeleteHe did good on 60 minutes last night.
I was bowled over by the 250+ people that were at Hal & Mal's Thursday night--all of whom were given stickers, bumperstickers, and signed up to be volunteers. When I dropped by the (large and well-staffed) campaign hq the following day I was simply blown away with how organized these people were.
ReplyDeleteI would adore the return to the days when people campaigned in every state.