In a race that has all the appearances of a throw in the towel effort by the GOP, Travis Childers has a 12 point lead in poll out today. Thanks to Swing State Project for the data.
Travis Childers (D-inc): 51
Greg Davis (R): 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.4%)
This was a rigged, push-poll. I guess it was politically clever of Childers to release it since most will gobble it up. There is no 12 pt. spread and anybody in the district knows that. July poll showed statistical dead heat and every Pub in America is stronger now than in July. Esp. Davis who didn't re-start his campaign 'til over in July. It's a farce, but Childers hopes that it freezes Davis's progress and becomes reality. But it's certainly not reality today.
ReplyDeleteDeSoto County was not even included in this poll. Check the methodology on this one.
ReplyDeleteAlso, about 8,000 more people have registered to vote in DeSoto County since the special election.
Do you guys expect the NRCC to come in with ad buys this time? They seem to be stretched pretty thin, with a limited budget.
ReplyDeleteNo, I dont expect the NRCC to come in and help, but I think this poll is wrong. It didnt include the most populated, and dare I say, Republican, county in all of the first district.
ReplyDeleteI would imagine a non-bias poll will show Childers ahead, but by one or two, not 12.
This is the same polling company that said Jamie Franks and Phil Bryant were in a statistical dead head a week before the election.
I don't know what the NRCC will do, nobody does. But I'm not sure it matters. We saw a nationalized race last time and even though the Pubs are re-vitalized, it's still a year w/ more Dem advantages nationally.
ReplyDeleteDavis has ran a low-key, localized race this time with retail politics. And Childers has just never caught on. Some folks were sick and tired or mad in the spring and chose him as the lesser of two evils. But tempers cool. More of these people simply didn't vote. The ONLY advantage Childers really has right now is the job. And the more folks are reminded of him being a part of the lowly-approved Democratic Congress, the more they remember he's aligned w/ Pelosi and others.
Regardless, the main point here is that that poll is bogus. Nobody who expects to be taken seriously believes there is a 12pt. margin. I can ask around at my church tonight and come back w/ a "poll", too, but that doesn't make it legit. Push-polls are not new, but this one just makes Childers lose more credibility with those on the fence.
Desoto county was included in this poll. This polling firm correctly predicted Childers win in April and May. Where on earth did you hear that Desoto county was not polled?
ReplyDeleteDo you have evidence it was illegal push-poll, or are you just spouting off stuff?
Anzalone nailed this race twice, correctly predicting Childers wins in April and May.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to laugh off their numbers, that's your own choice to make. But it's a mistake.
Anybody who thinks there is a 12 pt. margin and that Davis has not made up ground has not been walking around the district. Willful ignorance or just plain ole, doesn't matter. Have them release their raw data (if they can do it w/o cooking it also) if they're so confident.
ReplyDeleteI never saw a public release where they nailed the margin of victory in the Spring. I do remember how they totally blew the Bryant-Franks race in '07. They are an admittedly partisan polling firm.
If I were you I would be worried about the poll in November, but that is my opinion formed from years of being in your shoes as the party out of power.
ReplyDelete