Another dynamic: a possible record Democratic turnout Nov. 4 if Barack Obama is the first black party nominee.What do you guys think?
Will Mississippi remain Republican in presidential voting, as it has every cycle since Jimmy Carter in 1976? Will a Davis-Childers rematch for the full term change in outcome? Former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove will also face Wicker on Nov. 4 to fill Lott's term, which ends in 2012.
Can the Republicans' presumptive presidential nominee John McCain (with Mississippi roots) get voters to the polls Nov. 4?
Or will Wicker be going home to Tupelo, and Davis lose again, with Musgrove and Childers riding the swell of "change," if Mississippi Republicans stay home?
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Clarion Ledger asks the big questions, what are the answers?
From the Clarion Ledger opinion section,
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The way I see it, we have a lot on our plates for November, all achievable. Let's roll up our sleeves and get to work raising money and registering voters.
ReplyDeleteVery likely: Childers wins the seat again.
ReplyDeleteLess likely but possible: Musgrove beats Wicker.
Extremely unlikely: Obama carries Mississippi.
But all three are definitely possible, from where I sit. Musgrove's biggest problem is money. Obama's biggest problem is overcoming the Dixiecrat/Reagan Democrat hurdle, either by dramatically increasing black turnout or by pulling in a surprising number of Musgrove and Childers voters. The Democratic nominee carried 44% in 1996, 41% in 2000, and 40% in 2004. I don't think this represents a trend as much as it represents the fact that Clinton was an incumbent in 1996. I'd consider 44% the best case scenario under normal circumstances.
But these aren't normal circumstances. What Obama needs to do, ideally, is (a) do as well as Clinton did in 1996 across the board, plus (b) increase black turnout by at least 20%. Can he do it? I have no idea, but it would be a beautiful sight if he did.
nice analysis tom
ReplyDeleteIt is good analysis.
ReplyDelete