First, Childers was a solid candidate who related to rural voters in a way that Davis simply did not. More bluntly, rural voters didn't particularly like Davis.With all due respect to Sid Salters I think the truth lies somewhere between. There is a substantial shift away from "values" voting as Sid pointed out, partly due to the socially conservative stances of the Democrat and partly due to the overall direness of the economic . The Democrats are now tapping into the economic populism of the region by neutralizing the GOP in the social arena. Mississippians love the working man, and that is a good thing for Democrats as they try to establish a new stronghold here in Mississippi.
Second, one can't state clearly enough the price Davis paid among Republicans and swing voters over the scorched-earth GOP primary attacks he made on Republican opponent Glenn McCullough. Some of the GOP faithful simply couldn't get past that.
Third, one can't overstate the regionalism in the race. While the Davis camp was manufacturing a connection between Childers and Obama in TV attack ads that didn't sell very well in places like Bruce and Iuka, Democrats were asking a penetrating question that appealed to old urban-rural mistrusts: "Do you really want a congressman from suburban Memphis?"
This made me laugh,
Of course, when Republicans brought in their "big guns" to stump for Davis, Vice President Dick Cheney poured gas on the fire by making reference on a talk radio show to campaigning in "south Memphis." Rural Democrats had a field day with that gaffe.
Sid Salter is always good for finding the rain-cloud in every rainbow. If Eaves had somehow managed to beat Barbour he would have found a way to make it look good for the Republicans.
ReplyDeleteSix words: Greg Davis was a lousy candidate. For MS-2 and MS-3, the districts are so safely partisan that no real backstory is needed to explain the outcome of general elections. But MS-1 and MS-4 are our state's two competitive districts, and there's always more to it than party identity.
ReplyDeleteCan Childers win the war of ideas in MS-1 over time, and help reestablish a Democratic base in the state? Quite possibly. And he'll have an incumbency advantage in future elections that could keep the seat in Democratic hands for decades. But in the short term, I gotta agree with Sid: It boils down to the candidates.
I also suspect that Greg Davis probably wasn't able to amass the army of volunteers that Travis Childers was able to amass, but in some ways that just goes in the "Greg Davis was a lousy candidate" column. He has a fine future ahead of him as mayor of Southaven, and maybe in the state legislature, but Childers cleaned his clock and will easily do so again in November.
From the standpoint of someone who worked some on the Childers campaign, lives in the 1st, and has talked to a lot of folks about what happened, all of this leaves out a key fact:
ReplyDeleteThe black community turned out well for an oddly timed special election. And enthusiastically. I am absolutely convinced-- and have been told so by black voters-- that the attack ads linking Obama to Childers brought the black vote out. That would be true justice if so.
Indeed!
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